Market Overview for Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) - November 4, 2025

Summary
• CFXUSDT opened at $0.0902 and closed at $0.0882 over the past 24 hours.
• Price tested key resistance at $0.0915 and found support near $0.0876.
• Volume spiked during a sharp decline in the early hours of Nov 4.
• RSI hovered near 30-40, suggesting a potential oversold condition.
• Volatility expanded during a 12-hour window on Nov 4, with a low close.

Conflux/Tether (CFXUSDT) traded within a volatile 24-hour window ending on November 4, 2025. At 12:00 ET–1, the pair opened at $0.0902, hit a high of $0.0927, and a low of $0.0862, closing at $0.0882 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 49,712,196.00 units, and notional turnover was approximately $4,328,349. The price action reflects a strong bearish bias, with a key support forming around $0.0875 and resistance near $0.0915.

The 15-minute chart reveals a strong consolidation at $0.0875–$0.0885 for much of the day, broken by a sharp selloff from $0.0913 to $0.0862 in the early hours of November 4. This move was confirmed by bearish engulfing and dark cloud cover patterns. The 20-period moving average (0.0897) acted as a key resistance, while the 50-period moving average (0.0893) initially offered support but failed to hold during the selloff. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart also failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD turned negative early on November 4, with the histogram expanding during the selloff. RSI dipped below 30 multiple times, suggesting oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, with the price closing near the lower band at $0.0876. These indicators suggest a potential reversal at the key support level near $0.0875 but may also indicate a continuation of the bearish trend if the price remains below the 50-period moving average.

Volume surged during the selloff, with an average of 1.48M units per 15 minutes between 05:30–07:30 ET. Notional turnover aligned with this volume, reaching a peak at $0.0867. However, divergence between price and volume in the final hours of the session suggests weakening bearish momentum. Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute swing from $0.0867 to $0.0913 showed key levels at 38.2% ($0.0889) and 61.8% ($0.0895), both of which were tested but not held.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest strategy was conducted using close prices and a 9.15% absolute take-profit target. This aligns with the recent price swing from $0.0867 to $0.0913, where a 9.15% target would place a profit level near $0.0949. The strategy did not include stop-loss or holding-day limits. Given the volatility and bearish bias observed in the 24-hour period, such a strategy could have been triggered during the initial rally from $0.0867 to $0.0911. However, the failure to hold above key moving averages and the subsequent selloff suggest that this approach would have required tighter risk controls for consistent success.