Market Overview: Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) – October 6, 2025

• Price surged from $42.72 to $43.32 in 24 hours, showing strong bullish momentum.
• Key resistance formed around $43.52–$43.92, with a bearish reversal observed after reaching $44.23.
• On-balance volume surged in late ET hours, confirming price strength during the rally.
• RSI entered overbought territory near the session’s peak, hinting at potential near-term exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands widened through the session, indicating heightened volatility and breakout potential.

Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $42.72 on October 5 at 12:00 ET and closed at $43.32 24 hours later, reaching a high of $44.23 and a low of $42.61. Total volume for the period was 25,600.14, with a notional turnover of $1,076,946.70. The pair displayed a strong bullish bias with multiple bullish and bearish patterns emerging during the session.

The price structure showed a key support level around $42.80–$43.00, which held multiple times and acted as a buying floor. Resistance levels formed at $43.52, $43.80, and $44.23, with the latter being breached briefly before a sharp correction. Notable candlestick patterns included a bullish engulfing pattern at $43.52 and a bearish hanging man at $44.23, signaling potential exhaustion at the top.

MACD showed a bullish crossover in the morning, confirming the rally, but the histogram began to contract as the price neared $44.23. RSI reached overbought territory above 70, suggesting short-term profit-taking pressure. Bollinger Bands expanded throughout the session, with the price fluctuating near the upper band during the midday surge. This indicated heightened volatility and a higher probability of a reversal or consolidation phase.

Volume spiked during the late ET hours, especially after the $43.52 breakout and the $44.23 high, aligning with the price action. However, the lack of sustained volume during the pullback suggests caution around the current level. Fibonacci retracements highlighted key levels at 38.2% ($43.61) and 61.8% ($43.39) for the recent 15-minute swing, with the 61.8% level currently offering support.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours could see a test of the $43.52–$43.76 range. A sustained break above $43.92 could target $44.30, while a pullback below $43.32 would likely trigger a test of $43.00–$43.16. Investors should remain cautious of overbought conditions and diverging volume during the next phase of price action.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying bullish engulfing and bearish hanging man patterns at key Fibonacci retracement levels and RSI overbought/oversold thresholds. A potential entry would be triggered at a long signal when a bullish engulfing appears near the 61.8% Fibonacci level with RSI above 30. A stop loss would be set below the nearest support and a take profit target would align with the 127.2% extension of the prior swing. During the observed period, such a signal occurred at $43.52, confirming a long setup that led to a price increase to $44.23 before a bearish reversal. This strategy could be backtested using historical data to validate its robustness across similar market conditions.