Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT)

• COMP/USDT opened at $43.65 and surged to a 24-hour high of $44.57 before retracing to close at $42.67.
• Price declined from a morning peak, showing bearish momentum with an RSI below 30 indicating oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded during the peak, followed by a contraction phase after a sharp pullback to 61.8% Fibonacci support.
• Notional turnover spiked during the $44.57 high and declined significantly post-19:00 ET as bears took control.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 24-hour high, while a bullish harami appeared at the close, hinting at potential reversal signals.

Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $43.65 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $44.57 before closing at $42.67 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The 24-hour trading session saw total volume of 39,857.73 and notional turnover of $1,719,920.54. The pair exhibited a volatile and bearish trend, with a strong pullback after an intraday high and a closing price near key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $44.57, confirming the failure to hold the morning peak. A sharp retracement followed, hitting 61.8% Fibonacci support at $42.93 by early evening, with a further pullback to $42.67 by the close. A bullish harami formed in the final candle as price found support around $42.67, suggesting potential consolidation. Key resistance levels remain at $44.12 and $44.57, with $43.70 acting as immediate support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA 20) crossed below the 50-period moving average (SMA 50), forming a death cross. Daily moving averages show the 50 SMA at $43.96, above the 100 SMA at $43.70 and the 200 SMA at $43.45, indicating a slight long-term bias. The 50/100 SMA crossover at $43.80 suggests a neutral zone as of the close, with further bearish momentum expected if price remains below the 50 SMA.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the late morning, confirming bearish momentum after the $44.57 high. The histogram showed a sharp divergence, with the line crossing below the signal line. RSI dropped below 30 in the afternoon and remained in oversold territory for most of the session, hinting at a potential short-term bounce. However, the lack of a follow-through move above the 15-minute EMA 50 suggests continued bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the $44.57 peak, reflecting heightened volatility. After the sharp retracement, volatility contracted significantly, with price closing near the lower band at $42.52. This suggests a possible test of the 61.8% Fibonacci level and could indicate a potential reversal if price bounces off the lower band with increased volume.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the $44.57 high with a 15-minute volume of 4,939.753, but dropped sharply after 19:00 ET as bears controlled the market. Notional turnover peaked at $212,000 and fell to below $100,000 in the final 2 hours of the 24-hour window. Price and turnover diverged during the final retracement, with low turnover despite a significant price drop. This may indicate a lack of conviction in the downward move and could signal a near-term bottom if a follow-through candle forms above $43.50.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the $43.65 to $44.57 swing show a 38.2% level at $44.12 and a 61.8% level at $43.70. Price held above the 61.8% level temporarily but broke below it in the final hours of the session. Daily retracement levels from the 2025-09-25 high indicate a key 61.8% support at $42.50, which coincided with the Bollinger lower band. A rebound above $43.70 could suggest a short-covering rally, but a break below $42.50 would confirm a bearish bias for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described relies on a combination of MACD divergence, RSI oversold levels, and volume confirmation to identify potential short-term bounces. Based on today’s data, the RSI remained in oversold territory for over 3 hours while volume declined, meeting the criteria for a potential bullish reversal. The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence earlier in the session, but the final candle formed a bullish harami at $42.67, suggesting a possible test of the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A confirmation candle above $43.50 with increased volume would validate the strategy, while a close below $42.50 would invalidate the setup.