Market Overview: Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT)

• Price opened at $40.24, surged to $41.28, and closed near $41.03.
• Strong bullish momentum observed with a 5.4% upward move.
• Volatility remained elevated, with Bollinger Bands showing expansion.
• Volume increased significantly during key breakout hours.
• RSI approached overbought territory, suggesting possible pullback risk.

The Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) pair opened at $40.24 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of $41.28 by 06:00 ET. Price closed at $41.03 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-27. The total volume traded was approximately 31,627.59 COMP tokens, with a notional turnover of around $1,303,516.20 USD. The pair displayed a strong directional bias during the late night and early morning hours, with a 5.4% increase over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong ascending wedge pattern from 19:45 ET to 04:30 ET, breaking above resistance at $41.17 with confirmation by a bullish engulfing candle at $41.16–$41.18. A doji at $41.28 suggested temporary indecision, but the pattern remained bullish. Key support levels emerged at $40.81, $40.91, and $40.76, which held during minor pullbacks. The wedge breakout was confirmed by a 3.5% increase from $40.93 to $41.28 over 5 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line, forming a bullish crossover. This reinforced the recent upward momentum. On the daily chart, price remained above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong bullish trend. The 100-day moving average is currently acting as a dynamic support near $40.75–$40.80, which coincides with a previous consolidation zone.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a strong positive divergence with price, confirming the bullish breakout. The histogram expanded rapidly during the wedge formation, indicating increasing momentum. The RSI reached 76–78 during the peak of the rally, suggesting overbought conditions. However, the price did not retrace significantly after this level, suggesting strong buying pressure. A pullback below the 50 RSI level could signal a temporary pause in the upward trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction between $40.93 and $40.99 during the consolidation phase, followed by a sharp expansion during the breakout. Price traded above the upper band during the peak at $41.28, indicating high volatility. The upper band currently sits at $41.14–$41.16, which could act as a resistance level for the next session.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 1,000 COMP tokens per candle during the breakout phase, confirming the strength of the move. The highest volume was recorded at 06:00 ET, with a 942.314 COMP trade at $41.24. Notional turnover also increased significantly during this period, with $41.15 per candle reaching $34,000 in turnover. The volume and price action align well, suggesting strong conviction in the move higher.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart placed key levels at 38.2% ($41.01) and 61.8% ($40.96) during the consolidation phase. The price retested the 38.2% level before surging higher, suggesting strong demand at that level. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level at $40.81 also acted as a strong support, which held during a minor pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern that follows a Bollinger Band contraction and a 20/50 MA crossover on the 15-minute chart. Stop-loss orders could be placed just below the previous consolidation level (e.g., $40.91–$40.85), with targets at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the upper Bollinger Band. The recent move aligns with this strategy, showing strong confirmation from multiple indicators.