Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• Price dropped to a 24-hour low of $31.12 before staging a sharp rebound to close at $32.78
• Volatility surged with a 12.5% range between high and low, reflecting heightened market uncertainty
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged mid-day, followed by a recovery with bullish momentum
• RSI showed oversold conditions at 26, indicating potential for a short-term bounce
• Volume spiked during the dip, suggesting accumulation rather than capitulation

Opening and Closing Price Action

At 12:00 ET−1, Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at $33.40. Over the next 24 hours, the pair reached a high of $34.28 and a low of $31.12 before closing at $32.78 as of 12:00 ET today. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 54,072.36 COMP, while the notional turnover was approximately $1.65 million, indicating moderate liquidity and participation.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET, as COMPUSDT fell from $32.37 to $31.12 over a single 15-minute candle, signaling a potential reversal. A subsequent recovery phase from 22:00 ET onward showed a bullish divergence in price and RSI, with a doji forming at $31.31 on the 15-minute chart. Key support levels formed at $31.12, $31.50, and $32.00, while resistance levels were observed at $32.75, $33.00, and $33.55.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, COMPUSDT closed above the 20-period (MA20) at $32.62 and the 50-period (MA50) at $32.48, indicating a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period (MA50) at $33.20 and the 200-period (MA200) at $32.85 formed a bullish crossover, suggesting medium-term momentum may be turning positive after a prolonged bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line at 20:45 ET, confirming a short-term bullish crossover. RSI bottomed at 26 during the dip, indicating oversold conditions, and has since rebounded to the neutral zone (~50), suggesting a potential pullback could be in play. Momentum appears to be stabilizing, with a positive divergence between the RSI and the price action after the low at $31.12.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the dip, with the lower band reaching $31.00, and the price bottomed just above it. The close at $32.78 today sits slightly below the 20-period moving average, placing it in the middle band, which suggests volatility may be subsiding. A contraction in the bands is not evident yet, indicating the market is still processing the recent volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the dip, with the largest 15-minute volume recorded at 4100.823 COMP during the 19:30 ET candle, coinciding with a sharp drop from $32.37 to $31.12. Despite the drop, the price recovered with higher volume on the rebound, indicating strong buying interest. Notional turnover followed volume patterns closely, with no significant divergence, suggesting order flow was consistent with price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 24-hour low of $31.12 and high of $34.28, key levels to watch include the 38.2% retracement at $33.08 and the 61.8% retracement at $32.49. COMPUSDT is currently trading near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before the next directional move. On the 15-minute chart, a short-term swing from $31.12 to $32.78 shows the 50% retracement at $31.95 as a key level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described focuses on entries during confirmed divergences in RSI and MACD after a sharp price drop with high volume. Based on today’s price action, the bearish engulfing pattern at $31.12 and the subsequent bullish divergence in RSI and MACD align with the strategy’s parameters. A long entry signal could have been triggered after the doji at $31.31, with a stop loss below $31.00 and a target at $32.75 (61.8% retracement). This would have captured the subsequent rebound, demonstrating the strategy’s viability in capturing short-term reversals in a volatile environment.