Market Overview: Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• COMP/USDT traded higher in overnight hours but faced sell-offs in early ET, closing near 43.81.
• 44.50 high triggered profit-taking, with bearish momentum resurfacing below 44.10.
• Volume surged at 44.50 high, then declined, suggesting waning bullish conviction.
• 43.30-44.25 appears to be the short-term trading range, with key support near 43.60 and resistance at 44.15.
• RSI entered overbought territory early, then moved into neutral; MACD confirmed bearish divergence.

Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) opened at 43.65 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 44.57, a low of 43.30, and closed at 43.81 by 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume stood at 38,697.959 units, while notional turnover amounted to 1,684,808.26 USD. Price showed early bullish momentum, but bearish pressure returned after 17:15 ET, leading to a consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 16:45 ET as it surged from 44.17 to 44.50. However, this was followed by a bearish harami at 17:15 ET, indicating hesitation. A doji formed at 17:45 ET near 43.80, signaling indecision. The 44.15-44.20 range acted as resistance, with failed attempts to re-test it suggesting bearish exhaustion may be near. Key support levels appear at 43.85 and 43.60, with 43.30 potentially serving as a deeper stop if the trend extends further.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA was around 44.00, while the 50-period SMA hovered near 43.95. Price has remained above the 20-period line for most of the 24 hours but dipped below it in the early ET hours, suggesting bearish pressure. On the daily chart, price is trading slightly above the 50- and 100-period SMAs, suggesting a mixed near-term outlook.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish during the 17:15-22:00 ET timeframe, confirming the bearish trend. RSI initially entered overbought territory but has since returned to neutral, suggesting the market is in balance. Divergence between price and RSI after the 19:30 ET high of 44.12 indicates possible bearish continuation. The RSI remains between 50-55, signaling a potential consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke out of the upper band in the early morning, but the move failed to hold, leading to a reversion toward the mid-band by early ET. The bands have since narrowed slightly, indicating reduced volatility. As of the close, price sat near the mid-band, suggesting a potential sideways bias with limited directional momentum. A re-test of the upper band near 44.20 could trigger renewed bullish interest.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 16:45 ET during the 44.50 high, followed by a sharp decline as bearish pressure mounted. The 17:15-18:30 ET period saw a steady decline in volume despite bearish price action, indicating waning conviction. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, peaking at $67,000 and declining to under $40,000 by 22:30 ET. A divergence between price and volume may hint at a potential reversal or a deeper pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 43.30-44.57 swing, key levels lie at 43.90 (38.2%), 43.64 (50%), and 43.39 (61.8%). Price found initial support at the 50% level and is currently consolidating between 38.2% and 50%. A break below 43.64 could trigger a test of the 61.8% level, while a re-test of 44.12 could spark a re-range attempt between 43.60 and 44.15.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias once price closes below the 43.60 support, with a stop just above the 43.90 (38.2% Fib) level. A target of 43.39 (61.8% Fib) could serve as a primary profit objective. This approach would align with the bearish divergence in MACD and the weak volume following the initial high. However, any re-test of 44.00–44.12 may invalidate the short setup, favoring a neutral to bullish bias if the move holds.