Market Overview for Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) – 2025-09-24

• Price declined from $42.47 to $40.65 before rebounding to close near $42.10 on 24-hour COMPUSDT data.
• Notable bearish reversal occurred around 04:15 ET with a large-volume downswing.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions in the final 4 hours before close.
• High volatility seen between 16:00–05:00 ET, with intraday range exceeding $1.80.
• Volume and turnover diverged in the 12–20-hour window, signaling potential uncertainty.

The Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) pair opened at $41.75 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at $42.10 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The 24-hour range reached a high of $42.47 and a low of $40.65, with a total volume of 51,127.26 and a turnover of $2,139,210.37. Price action was defined by a sharp bearish reversal in the early morning before a sustained rally in the afternoon.

Structure and formations revealed a bearish engulfing pattern at 04:15 ET and a bullish flag formation from 05:00 to 11:45 ET. Key support levels were identified at $41.50, $41.00, and $40.65, with resistance at $42.20, $42.40, and $42.60. A doji formed at $41.87 around 09:15 ET, signaling indecision.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period at the start of the bearish swing, suggesting a temporary shift in short-term sentiment. The daily 50-period moving average was near $41.60, slightly below the 100- and 200-period lines, indicating a moderate bearish bias in longer-term structure.

The RSI hit oversold territory below 30 during the 04:00–06:00 ET window, followed by a sharp recovery toward overbought conditions above 60. The MACD line showed a positive crossover just before the rally began, with the histogram expanding during the 07:00–11:45 ET period. Bollinger Bands widened during the peak volatility and closed with the price near the upper band at $42.10, suggesting strong upward momentum.

Volume spiked during the 04:15–06:00 ET bearish phase, while turnover remained elevated through the afternoon rally. Price and turnover aligned closely between 08:00 and 12:00 ET, reinforcing the bullish phase. A divergence appeared in the early morning hours when volume surged but price action declined, signaling potential distribution.

Fibonacci retracement levels showed 38.2% at $41.88 and 61.8% at $42.19 on the 15-minute rally from $41.35 to $42.47. Daily retracements aligned with key support and resistance levels, with the 61.8% level at $42.21 overlapping with the final close, reinforcing potential for continuation.

The coming 24 hours could see a continuation of bullish momentum if price holds above $42.00, with a target near $42.40. A breakdown below $41.80, however, could open the door for a test of $41.50. Investors should monitor the 20-period MA and RSI for signs of overbought exhaustion or bearish divergence.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bullish momentum in the final 6 hours of the period, a potential backtest strategy could involve a long entry at a confirmed bullish crossover of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, coupled with RSI above 50 and a close above the upper Bollinger Band. Stops could be placed just below the nearest Fibonacci retracement level at $42.00, with targets set at $42.30 and $42.50. This approach would align with the recent structure and momentum indicators, aiming to capture the continuation of the afternoon rally.