Market Overview: Compound/Tether (COMPUSDT) on 2025-09-20

• COMPUSDT traded lower on the day, with bearish momentum evident in afternoon hours before a late rally.
• A key 15-minute breakout below 44.20 was followed by a partial recovery above 44.40.
• Volume spiked during the afternoon decline but declined after the late rally, suggesting mixed conviction.
• RSI remained below overbought territory, and Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility expansion.
• The 24-hour notional turnover surged during the 23:30 ET breakdown, suggesting heightened interest.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-19, COMPUSDT opened at $44.50, hit a high of $44.89 at 15:30 ET, a low of $43.74 at 23:30 ET, and closed at $44.84 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-20. Total 24-hour volume was 18,767.59 with a notional turnover of $830,126. The price action displayed a midday breakdown followed by a late rally, reflecting shifting sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at $44.20 and $43.90, both tested and rejected multiple times during the session. A large bearish engulfing candle at 17:45 ET confirmed the initial breakdown. Later, a bullish hammer and a bullish engulfing pattern at 08:45 and 09:00 ET signaled a partial reversal. The session ended with a bullish breakout from a consolidation range, suggesting short-term buying pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained above the 20- and 50-period moving averages in the final hours, while the daily chart showed the price trading above all three key MAs (50, 100, 200). This indicates short- to medium-term bullish bias, though confirmation from the next session is needed for a more definitive reading.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative throughout much of the session but turned positive during the late rally, supporting the bullish bias. RSI bottomed at 35 during the afternoon low and closed near 58, indicating that oversold conditions had not developed. The combination suggests a potential for further consolidation or a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the afternoon sell-off and began to contract during the late rally, suggesting reduced volatility. Price spent most of the day within the bands, but the 15:30 ET candle closed just below the upper band, indicating a brief overbought condition and a potential for a reversion to the mean.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 17:45 ET breakdown, with a candle printing a volume of 1,533.58, followed by a smaller spike during the 05:45 ET rally. Notional turnover aligned with volume, confirming price moves. Divergence between price and volume in the final hours suggests cautious optimism and potential for a consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from $44.89 to $43.74, 61.8% retracement level fell near $44.50, which coincided with the late price action. This level appears to have acted as a dynamic support, suggesting the potential for a continuation or a pullback within the range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy focuses on identifying 15-minute bearish or bullish engulfing patterns that occur near key Fibonacci levels (38.2%, 61.8%) and volume confirmation. A buy signal is generated when a bullish engulfing pattern appears above a 61.8% retracement level with a significant increase in volume, while a sell signal is triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern below a 38.2% retracement with rising volume. The current late-day rally appears to meet the bullish criteria, with a valid engulfing candle above the 61.8% level and strong volume. If this pattern repeats in the next session, it may offer a low-risk entry for a short-term long trade, but caution is advised if the 44.90 level fails to hold.