Market Overview for Civic/Tether (CVCUSDT) - October 11, 2025

• Price declined sharply in early hours, falling from $0.0785 to as low as $0.0486.
• A recovery followed, bringing price back to $0.064–$0.065 range by close, forming a possible bullish reversal.
• High volatility seen, with price swinging more than 50% from intraday high to low.
• Volume surged during the selloff but eased during the recovery, hinting at waning short-term selling pressure.
• RSI and MACD signal potential overbought/oversold divergence, suggesting a pause in directional momentum.

Civic/Tether (CVCUSDT) opened at $0.0785 on October 10 at 12:00 ET and dropped to a 24-hour low of $0.0486. The pair closed at $0.0641 on October 11 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was approximately 54,752,116 units, with total turnover reaching $3,317,428, reflecting a period of heightened volatility and strong price action.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, CVCUSDT displayed several notable price structures. The selloff in the early hours of October 10, starting around 19:30 ET, saw a sharp decline from $0.0773 to $0.0486, forming a bearish breakdown below a key support zone between $0.075–$0.076. A hammer pattern emerged during the recovery from the $0.0481 low, followed by a bullish engulfing pattern in the $0.063–$0.064 range. A doji was observed around $0.0626, signaling indecision. The formation suggests possible short-term support at $0.062–$0.063 and resistance at $0.065–$0.066.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed multiple times during the selloff and recovery, reflecting a highly volatile market. The 20-period line crossed below the 50-period line around $0.078–$0.079, indicating a bearish crossover. As the price rebounded, the 20-period line crossed back above the 50-period line, suggesting potential bullish momentum. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) showed a bearish bias as price traded below all three lines during the selloff, but the 50-period line now appears to be approaching the current price, suggesting potential for a short-term reversal if price holds above $0.063.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative during the selloff and remained below the signal line, showing bearish momentum. However, as price recovered, the MACD crossed above the signal line and the histogram turned positive, indicating a possible shift in momentum. The RSI indicator dropped below 30 into oversold territory during the selloff, reaching a low of 19, and has since rebounded to around 55, indicating a potential overbought-oversold divergence. This divergence suggests the market may be consolidating before resuming a directional move.

Bollinger Bands

During the sharp selloff, price moved well below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating extreme volatility and oversold conditions. As the price recovered, it moved back within the band and has since tested the upper and lower boundaries multiple times. The band width has expanded significantly, reflecting the volatile nature of the move. Price appears to be approaching the upper band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase or a reversal if it fails to break out.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the selloff, with a single candle (19:30–19:45 ET) recording a volume of 6,589,493 units. This was accompanied by a turnover of over $399,000 during that period. In contrast, the recovery phase saw a drop in volume and turnover, indicating reduced conviction in the upward move. A divergence between price and volume suggests caution, as high volume during the selloff did not lead to a continuation. The recent increase in turnover during the recovery suggests renewed buyer interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from $0.0785 to $0.0486, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.0637 and the 61.8% level is at $0.0681. The current price sits slightly below the 38.2% retracement level, suggesting that the $0.063–$0.064 range is a critical area to watch for potential support. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci level from a previous swing high and low is near $0.074–$0.075, which remains a potential resistance if the recovery continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions at key Fibonacci support levels such as $0.063 and $0.062, with stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low. The strategy would aim to capture the bullish momentum observed during the recovery phase while managing risk by exiting on a break below $0.061 or at a predefined profit target near $0.066. Using RSI as a filter, entries could be triggered when RSI rises above 30 and remains above it for at least two consecutive 15-minute candles, confirming a shift from oversold to potentially overbought territory.