Market Overview for Civic/Tether (CVCUSDT) on 2025-11-10

Summary

• Price consolidated between 0.0563–0.0582 on 15-min chart, with a bullish bias post-18:00 ET.
• MACD and RSI showed mixed momentum, with RSI hovering near neutral levels.
• Volume surged at key reversal points but declined after 09:00 ET, suggesting fading interest.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion, with price near the upper band mid-session.
• No clear bullish engulfing pattern emerged, but Fibonacci levels supported a potential short-term bounce.

Price Action and Key Levels

Civic/Tether (CVCUSDT) traded between $0.0563 and $0.0582 over the 24-hour period, opening at $0.0568 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET and closing at $0.0576 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The pair showed a modest bullish trend in the later half of the session, especially after a strong candle at 19:00 ET, which pushed price up to $0.0578. Key resistance appeared to form around $0.0576–0.0578, with support levels noted at $0.0563 and $0.0568. Notable candlestick patterns included a bearish divergence in the first half of the day and a bullish divergence in the second, with no clear reversal formations like a bullish engulfing pattern appearing during the session.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages converged slightly during the morning and diverged again after 18:00 ET, indicating choppy but trending price action. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average remained below the 200-period MA, suggesting the pair remains in a medium-term bearish trend. MACD showed mixed momentum, with a narrow histogram and a flattening signal line, indicating fading bullish momentum. RSI hovered between 45–55 for most of the session, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the session, with price frequently trading near the upper band between 19:00 ET and 02:00 ET, suggesting increased volatility. After 09:00 ET, volatility contracted again, with the bands tightening and price settling within the mid-range. This suggested a potential consolidation phase ahead, with a possible breakout expected if price can close above $0.0578 or below $0.0563.

Volume and Turnover

Volume showed spikes at key reversal points, including a large 19:00 ET candle with a volume of 106,741, suggesting accumulation. Notional turnover confirmed the volume activity, with higher turnover during the bullish phase. However, after 09:00 ET, volume began to decline, indicating weaker conviction in the bullish move. This divergence may suggest caution for further longs without confirmation of sustained volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high at $0.0582 and the low at $0.0563, the 38.2% level at $0.0573 and 61.8% level at $0.0576 coincided with price consolidation in the final hours. This suggests that CVCUSDT may find support or resistance at these levels in the next 24 hours. The 50% retracement level at $0.0572 also acted as a minor support during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy of entering longs on each Bullish Engulfing signal in CVCUSDT between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-10 yielded a poor total return of -79.9%, with an annualized return of only 0.16% and a maximum drawdown of 87%. This highlights the limitations of relying solely on single-candlestick signals in a bearish market context, especially when no risk controls or stop-loss measures are in place. To improve performance, strategies could incorporate trend filters (e.g., 50-day MA above 200-day MA) or pair signals with fixed take-profit and stop-loss levels. The current lack of clear bullish reversal patterns on the 15-minute chart suggests that the strategy may struggle to find viable signals in the near term unless price breaks out of its consolidation range.