Market Overview for Civic/Tether (CVCUSDT) on 2025-09-25

• Price action shows a bearish drift from 0.0851 to 0.0813, with key support around 0.0813.
• Momentum is bearish, with RSI and MACD indicating oversold conditions.
• Volatility increased in the early morning, then stabilized into a tightening range.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off, confirming the bearish move.
• The recent 15-minute chart shows a potential bearish continuation with a potential bounce from 0.0813.

The Civic/Tether pair (CVCUSDT) opened at 0.0851 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24 and drifted lower throughout the 24-hour period. It reached a high of 0.0853, a low of 0.0802, and closed at 0.0813 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Total traded volume was 3,119,643.0 and turnover amounted to approximately $250,088.46. The bearish momentum is evident in the downward trend, with the price closing near the session’s low.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a prolonged bearish move with a key support level forming around 0.0813–0.0814. This level is now the immediate floor for the pair, having been tested multiple times. A doji pattern appeared around 05:45 ET, indicating indecision. A bearish engulfing pattern at 22:15 ET confirmed the continuation of the downward move. Resistance appears at 0.0820–0.0822, which may serve as a short-term ceiling for buyers attempting to reclaim the pair.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned, with the price staying well below both. This suggests that the trend is intact and that short-term buyers are struggling to make gains. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages are also bearishly aligned, reinforcing the bearish structure and suggesting continued downward pressure in the short to medium term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is in negative territory and has crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI is in oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could be in play. However, the RSI’s failure to break above 30 despite several attempts indicates that the bearish bias remains strong. The pair could experience a temporary rebound from the 0.0813 level, but further bearish moves are likely if the RSI fails to sustain above 35.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has contracted in the latter half of the day, with the price consolidating within the Bollinger Bands. The upper band sits at 0.0820, while the lower band is near 0.0813. The price has touched the lower band multiple times, indicating that it is testing the support level. A break below the lower band could trigger a deeper correction, but the consolidation suggests a temporary pause in the trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning hours, particularly between 02:00 ET and 04:00 ET, as the price fell sharply from 0.0831 to 0.0820. This confirms the bearish move and suggests strong selling pressure. Turnover spiked in line with volume, indicating significant real money participation in the sell-off. However, in the last 12 hours, volume has declined, suggesting that the immediate bearish momentum is slowing. A divergence between price and volume could signal a potential reversal or at least a pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0851 to 0.0802, the 38.2% level sits at approximately 0.0834, and the 61.8% level at 0.0816. These levels may act as potential support or resistance in the near term. The 0.0816 level is particularly significant as it aligns with recent consolidation and appears to be a key psychological floor. A break below 0.0816 could target the 0.0807 level, while a rebound from 0.0816 could test 0.0820.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves a short-term reversal approach triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern and a RSI below 30. When both conditions are met, a long entry is initiated at the close, with a stop-loss placed below the 15-minute support level and a target at the nearest Fibonacci resistance level. This strategy aligns well with the current setup on the 15-minute chart, where the bearish engulfing pattern at 22:15 ET and the oversold RSI indicate a high probability for a short-term bounce. However, traders should monitor volume and divergence signs to avoid false breakouts.