Market Overview: Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• CHZUSDT opened at $0.034 and closed at $0.03207 within a 24-hour range of $0.03186–$0.03421.
• Price formed multiple bearish engulfing patterns after 17:00 ET, signaling momentum reversal.
• Volatility increased significantly overnight, with turnover peaking near 516,814.
• RSI and MACD suggested overbought conditions early, followed by bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands show price within the lower third, indicating potential for a rebound or further consolidation.

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at $0.034 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.03207 by 12:00 ET the following day, after reaching a high of $0.03421 and a low of $0.03186. Total volume across the 24-hour period was approximately 25,887,813, while notional turnover stood at roughly $848,981.

The structure of the candlestick pattern over the last 24 hours revealed several key features. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:00 ET and again at 20:30 ET, indicating strong bearish momentum taking over from initial bullish pressure. A doji candle appeared at 18:00 ET, hinting at indecision in the market. Resistance levels formed around $0.0341 and $0.0342, while support clustered near $0.0335 and $0.0333. These levels may provide psychological barriers for the next 24 hours, especially as price appears to consolidate near $0.03205–$0.03215.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over multiple times, showing a lack of clear trend dominance. The 50-period moving average was at $0.0323, and the 20-period at $0.0322, indicating a slight bearish bias. The MACD line moved below the signal line, suggesting a bearish momentum shift. RSI dipped into the 30–35 range during the afternoon, signaling oversold conditions temporarily, but failed to generate a strong rebound. This bearish divergence raises questions about the likelihood of a reversal in the short term.

Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable expansion as price moved through the lower band early in the session and remained near the bottom third of the bands during the morning. This suggests a period of heightened volatility and potential exhaustion in the bearish trend. A retest of the upper band could be expected if buyers step in near the $0.0321–$0.0322 level, particularly if volume shows signs of increasing. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high ($0.03421) to the swing low ($0.03186) place 38.2% at $0.0331 and 61.8% at $0.0326—both levels appear to have been rejected or tested, with price currently hovering around the 78.6% level at $0.03207.

The bearish momentum appears to be in control for now, but signs of a potential consolidation phase are emerging. Investors may watch for a breakout above the $0.03215 level with increased volume to signal a reversal. However, caution is warranted as the current price action remains below key Fibonacci levels and within Bollinger Bands' lower range.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate short-term momentum and overbought/oversold conditions, a 3-day backtesting strategy can be constructed using the RSI (14-period) and a 20-period moving average. A buy signal could be generated when RSI dips below 30 (oversold) and the price crosses above the 20-period moving average. A sell or exit signal would be triggered when RSI rises above 70 (overbought) or the price crosses below the 20-period line. By applying this strategy from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-22, we can assess its effectiveness for CHZUSDT, especially in identifying short-term reversals and trend continuation phases.