Market Overview for Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) on 2025-11-03

• CHZUSDT opened at $0.03123 and closed at $0.02902 over the last 24 hours, with a high of $0.03204 and a low of $0.02744.
• Volume surged to 7.8 million CHZ at the 15:30 ET candle, indicating high volatility and potential trend reversal.
• RSI reached overbought conditions above 70, followed by a sharp correction, suggesting bearish momentum.
• Price broke below a key 0.0300 support level, confirming a bearish bias and opening the door to 0.0285.
• Bollinger Bands contracted earlier in the session, followed by a violent expansion as the asset dropped below the lower band.

Chiliz/Tether (CHZUSDT) opened at $0.03123 on the 15-minute chart at 12:00 ET - 1, reaching a high of $0.03204 and a low of $0.02744 before closing at $0.02902 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 32.6 million CHZ, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.00 million, highlighting elevated market activity and potential trend divergence.

Over the past 24 hours, CHZUSDT exhibited a clear bearish reversal following an overbought RSI condition above 70. The price declined sharply after the RSI failed to confirm the bullish move, a classic sign of divergence. A key resistance at $0.0300 was broken to the downside, confirming the bearish bias. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remain in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. The 50-period daily MA is also above the 200-period MA, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands contracted tightly in the early hours of the session, signaling a potential breakout. Following a sharp drop, the price fell below the lower band, indicating high volatility and a continuation of the downtrend. A 20-period ATR of 0.00155 suggests moderate volatility relative to historical swings. Volume spiked significantly at the 15:30 ET candle, with over 7.8 million CHZ traded, aligning with the price breakdown and validating the bearish move.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the most recent 15-minute swing (0.02744–0.03204) show CHZUSDT has retraced to the 61.8% level at approximately $0.0294. The price is now consolidating below this level, indicating further downside potential toward the 78.6% retracement at $0.0284. A break below the 78.6% level may trigger a test of the 0.02744 swing low. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the recent bull move aligns with $0.0285, which could become a key support to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate potential trading strategies on CHZUSDT, a backtesting framework can be built around candlestick signals like the Bullish Engulfing pattern, combined with technical rules for entry, exit, and risk management. Given the observed bearish trend and overbought RSI divergence, a sell-side backtest could be constructed using the following parameters:

1. Candle timeframe: Daily (1-day bars) from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03.
2. Exit Rule – “Next resistance level”: Use the nearest pivot-high: sell when price first touches or exceeds the most recent 10-bar swing high above the entry price.
3. Risk-management overlays:
4. Stop-loss at 2% below entry.
5. Maximum holding period of 10 days if the resistance level is not reached.
6. Entry/Execution price: Use the next day’s open for entries; use the same-day close for exits.

By scanning the daily chart for Bullish Engulfing signals between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-03, we can generate an objective backtest of the strategy. This approach would allow investors to assess the profitability and reliability of using candlestick signals in CHZUSDT's context, particularly during periods of overbought conditions and divergences like those seen today.