Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY): Volatility and Reversal Signals

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) fell sharply during Asian hours but has bounced in the afternoon.
• Price action shows a bearish breakdown attempt and partial recovery, suggesting a volatile session.
• RSI points to oversold conditions, hinting at potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volume surged during the decline but remains elevated, supporting key levels.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 2523 and 2463 appear relevant for near-term direction.

The Chainlink/Yen pair (LINKJPY) opened at 2653 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 2726 before falling to a session low of 2242. It closed at 2390 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The 24-hour total volume was 13,903.98 units, with a turnover of approximately ¥35,573,400 (assuming average price ~2560).

Structure and formations show a significant bearish breakdown from the 2650–2720 resistance cluster, followed by a partial recovery into the 2400–2480 range. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 2678 and 2681, confirming the initial sell-off. Later, a bullish reversal at 2480–2490 suggested traders are testing lower levels for support. The 2480 and 2500 levels appear as key near-term pivots, with 2463 and 2523 as Fibonacci retracement levels from the 2242–2516 move.

MACD turned negative during the Asian session, confirming bearish momentum, while RSI dipped into oversold territory near 28–30, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the sell-off, with prices testing the lower band at 2242, pointing to a period of high volatility and potential exhaustion of the downward move. Volume spiked during the 2300–2345 ET timeframe, especially during the 1530–1545 ET window, which saw a massive 4505.58 units traded as price fell from 2489 to 2356.

The 15-minute candlestick pattern shows a volatile session, with bearish momentum dominating for most of the day. However, a series of bullish reversal patterns emerged in the afternoon, indicating potential for a countertrend move. The 20-period moving average dipped below the 50-period line, confirming a bearish crossover, while the 200-period daily MA continues to act as a long-term resistance. Volume and turnover spiked during the 1530–1545 ET window as the pair tested the 2242 support level, indicating significant selling pressure. Despite this, the price found a base between 2380 and 2400, which could hold as a short-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis: Given the bearish engulfing pattern identified at 2678–2681 and the confirmation via RSI and volume, a potential short-hold-3-days backtest could be applied using the 15-minute chart. A hypothetical trade would have opened at the next candle after the pattern closed (at 2681) and would have closed after three trading days at the 2400 level, representing a 10.9% move. A similar strategy using the 50-period and 200-period moving averages could have provided further confirmation of bearish momentum. This aligns with the described backtest strategy for the Harbor Alpha Layering ETF if applied to this pair using a bearish pattern.