Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) – October 9, 2025

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• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) fell 12.5% in 24 hours, closing at 3326 after reaching a high of 3455.
• A strong bearish reversal pattern emerged around 3450–3435 with diverging price and volume.
• Volatility expanded midday, then compressed into a tight range overnight, signaling indecision.
• RSI and MACD confirmed oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands tightened, hinting at potential breakouts.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 3368 on October 8 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 3455, dropped to a low of 3299, and closed at 3326 by 12:00 ET October 9. Total volume amounted to 20,603.87 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥68,172,079. The price action reflected a strong bearish bias, especially after an initial breakout failed to consolidate above 3450.

Structure and formations showed a key resistance cluster forming at 3430–3450, with a failed bullish engulfing pattern at 3442–3447. A bearish harami developed around 3431–3436, followed by a long lower shadow at 3393–3362, suggesting short-covering and fading momentum. The 3380–3360 range acted as a critical support zone, holding price before another sell-off.

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Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a 20-period MA crossing below the 50-period MA midday, confirming a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA remained above the 100-period MA on the daily chart, though the 200-period MA now acts as a critical floor at 3310–3330. The price closed below key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached oversold territory at 25–28 during the late-night sell-off, while MACD turned negative, forming bearish crossovers with the signal line. Bollinger Bands tightened significantly in the overnight hours, compressing volatility and hinting at a potential breakout. Price tested the lower band multiple times, suggesting potential for a bounce but not a reversal.

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Volume spiked sharply during the midday sell-off, reaching over 900 units in a single 15-minute interval, before tapering off. Turnover closely followed volume, with no signs of divergence, confirming the bearish trend. Fibonacci retracements applied to the key 3455–3299 swing placed 61.8% at 3349 and 38.2% at 3382—price tested both levels but failed to hold above 3380.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy described involves entering a short position when the 20-period MA crosses below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above the recent high and a target set at the next Fibonacci retracement level. Given today’s action, the strategy would have triggered entry at 3447, with a stop above 3451 and a target near 3349. This aligns with observed price behavior and validates the strategy’s potential. However, the effectiveness may vary in low-volume or range-bound conditions.