Market Overview: Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) 24-Hour Summary

• Price rose from 3427.0 to 3571.0 before retracing to close near 3328.0 by 12:00 ET.
• Strong momentum seen in early morning hours, followed by sharp sell-off in afternoon.
• RSI oversold near 30, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Volume spiked in early rally, but declined during the selloff, indicating weakening conviction.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent volatility expansion, with price near lower band at close.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 3427.0 on October 6 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3571.0 before closing at 3328.0 on October 7 at the same time. The pair traded between 3309.0 and 3571.0 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 23,585.29, and notional turnover (price × volume) was approximately 81,497,575.40 JPY.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish wave from 3427.0 to 3571.0 over the first half of the period, with key resistance levels forming near 3544.0 and 3553.0. A strong engulfing bullish candle at 01:15 ET (3547–3553) confirmed the momentum. However, a bearish reversal occurred in the afternoon, marked by a long-legged doji at 22:45 ET (3525–3532) and a bearish harami at 04:15 ET (3498–3540). These patterns suggest weakening bullish conviction and a potential trend reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages in the early morning before closing significantly below both, signaling a bearish divergence. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain unbroken and provide a critical support zone between 3350.0 and 3400.0, which could determine the near-term direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into bearish territory in the late morning and remained negative for most of the session, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI reached oversold levels near 30 by the close, indicating a potential rebound could occur. However, the divergence between bullish RSI and bearish price action suggests caution in interpreting oversold signals too strongly.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the rally, with Bollinger Bands widening. Price peaked near the upper band at 3571.0 before falling and settling near the lower band at 3309.0 by the close. The wide range and price sitting near the lower band suggest the pair may consolidate or see a bounce from this support area.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 1425.8 during the bullish phase at 05:00 ET, confirming strong buying interest. However, the bearish phase saw lower volume and higher price declines, indicating a lack of conviction on the sell side. Turnover also peaked during the rally, but dropped during the selloff, reinforcing the divergence. Investors should monitor if volume rises during a potential rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels of 38.2% (3504.0) and 61.8% (3446.0) were tested and broken during the selloff. On the daily chart, a major Fibonacci retracement level at 3371.0 was reached and slightly oversold, aligning with the closing price near 3328.0. A rebound may see price retest the 3446.0 level before facing further resistance at 3496.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup and divergence in price and momentum indicators, a backtesting strategy could focus on Fibonacci retracements and RSI levels for potential long entries. A possible approach is to enter long when RSI rebounds above 30 and price bounces off the 3371.0 Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed below the 3309.0 support and a target at 3446.0. This hypothesis aligns with the observed overbought/oversold levels and key support/resistance structures identified in the analysis.