Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) on 2025-09-24

• LINKJPY traded lower in 24 hours, closing near session low after early morning consolidation.
• Price tested key support levels twice, with a bearish bias confirmed by RSI and volume divergence.
• Volatility spiked during early Asian hours, with a sharp drop below 3200 JPY.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the decline, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
• MACD remained in negative territory, signaling sustained bearish momentum.

The Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) pair opened at 3246.0 JPY on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 3254.0 JPY before closing at 3241.0 JPY at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 16,751.81 JPY, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥60,000,000 (assuming 18,751 JPY volume with 3,200 average price). The price action displayed a bearish bias, with a notable bearish reversal pattern forming after a failed rally attempt in the early hours.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearishly aligned throughout the session, with the price staying below both. The 50-period line, in particular, acted as a resistance level during a mid-morning rebound attempt. A key support level emerged at 3200 JPY, where the price found temporary buyers multiple times, forming a potential pivot point. A long lower shadow at 3185 JPY during the 23:30–00:00 ET window signaled a potential short-term support level. However, price failed to retest this area convincingly, indicating weakening bullish conviction.

MACD remained negative throughout the session, with the signal line crossing below the histogram, signaling sustained bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory at one point but failed to generate a strong rebound, suggesting a lack of conviction in buying interest. Bollinger Bands displayed a noticeable expansion during the morning hours, coinciding with the price break below 3200 JPY. This expansion is a sign of increased volatility and uncertainty in the market. The price remained near the lower Bollinger band for much of the session, indicating a strong bearish bias and potential for further downside.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 3254.0 JPY high to the 3185.0 JPY low identified key levels at 3213.5 JPY (38.2%) and 3195.0 JPY (61.8%). The 61.8% level appears to have served as a temporary support point but was broken in the early morning hours. Volume spiked during the initial drop below 3200 JPY but then significantly declined during the consolidation phase, pointing to exhaustion in the bearish move. However, the subsequent price action failed to show a strong reversal, indicating that the market may still be in a transitional phase.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve a Fibonacci-based mean reversion approach, where long positions are entered on a retest of the 61.8% retracement level (3195 JPY) with a stop loss below the next key support level at 3185 JPY. Short positions could be triggered on a break below 3195 JPY, with a target aligned with the 78.6% level or a break of the recent low. This approach could be tested using the 15-minute chart with strict risk management rules. The RSI and MACD signals during the session suggest that the 3195 JPY level may offer limited conviction if approached from above, and traders should closely watch for volume confirmation or divergence.