Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) - October 10, 2025

• Price surged over $21.60 before correcting to close near $21.40; bearish divergence in volume suggests momentum may be waning.
• RSI and MACD showed overbought conditions earlier, but a bearish crossover in MACD now aligns with downward momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the day, with Bollinger Bands showing widening and price closing near the lower band.
• A bullish engulfing pattern failed to hold, while key support at $21.40 and resistance at $21.75 were tested multiple times.
• Total volume increased sharply post 03:30 ET, but turnover failed to confirm, indicating potential divergence in conviction.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $21.39 on October 9 at 12:00 ET and closed at $21.37 on October 10 at the same time, reaching a high of $22.78 and a low of $21.20 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume was 2,564,257.89 LINK, and the notional turnover amounted to $56,906,200. The pair displayed a complex intraday pattern marked by sharp surges and pullbacks, especially after a major volume spike post 03:30 ET.

Structure & Formations

LINKUSDT saw a key intraday breakout to $22.78, followed by a sharp pullback, which created a bearish divergence. The price tested the $21.75 level as resistance multiple times, with a failed bullish engulfing pattern indicating potential bearish sentiment. A doji appeared near $22.50, suggesting indecision. Key support levels identified include $21.40 and $21.20, both of which saw price consolidation before the final close.

Moving Averages & MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA crossed above the 50 EMA early in the session, signaling a temporary bullish bias, which was later reversed. The daily 50 SMA sits near $21.80, aligning with the upper end of the consolidation phase. MACD showed an overbought reading at the peak before a bearish crossover occurred near $21.55, confirming a shift in momentum. RSI also hit overbought levels at the high but dropped below 50, reinforcing bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility surged significantly after 03:30 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening from $0.10 to $0.45. Price closed near the lower band at $21.37, suggesting a potential oversold condition. A contraction in volatility is expected in the next 24 hours, which could lead to a possible bounce if the $21.20 level holds. However, given the bearish MACD and volume divergence, the likelihood of a sustained bounce is low.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent swings show a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $21.61 and a 38.2% level at $21.95, both of which acted as short-term resistance and support points. A breakdown below $21.20 would target the next 61.8% level at $20.85, which was last seen in late September. The 50% retracement sits at $21.49, where price found consolidation in the final hour of the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on shorting the pair at the 20 EMA crossover with a stop just above the 50 EMA, as seen after 03:30 ET. This would have captured the subsequent decline to $21.37. For intraday entries, a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart between 18:00 and 18:30 ET could have signaled a sell opportunity, with a stop just above $21.85. A daily strategy using a 50/100 SMA crossover with RSI confirmation could have triggered an exit before the final leg down. This strategy would benefit from a low-volatility setup and bearish momentum signals.