Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) on 2025-09-26

• Price declined from $20.90 to $19.96 before rebounding to $20.63, showing intra-day bearish pressure.
• Oversold RSI and long lower shadows suggest potential short-term reversal may be in play.
• Volatility expanded during the selloff but has compressed as price stabilizes near key support levels.
• High volume on the bounce indicates possible accumulation at current levels.
• Key resistance at $20.60–$20.66 and support at $20.35–$20.45 appear to be pivotal for the next 24 hours.

Price Action and Open-High-Low-Close

At 12:00 ET − 1, Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $20.89, reached a high of $20.90, and a low of $19.93 before closing at $20.60 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. Over the 24-hour window, the pair recorded a total trading volume of 6,112,628.96 and notional turnover of $125,869,256.55, indicating strong liquidity and market participation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a distinct bearish breakdown from $20.90 to as low as $19.93, forming a large bearish engulfing pattern early in the session before a recovery began. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged during the overnight session near $20.39–$20.41, suggesting buyers stepped in after a sharp pullback. A key support level appears to be forming between $20.35 and $20.45, while resistance is found in the $20.60–$20.66 range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period MA sits near $20.47 and the 50-period MA near $20.44, with price currently above both. This suggests short-term bullish momentum is building. Daily MAs (50, 100, and 200) appear to be aligned around $20.30–$20.35, indicating a potential confluence zone of support. Price may test these levels if the current bullish bounce fails.

MACD and RSI

The MACD turned positive during the overnight rally, crossing above the signal line, which supports a short-term bullish view. The RSI reached oversold levels at 28 during the selloff but has since bounced to around 48–52, suggesting the decline may be overextended. If the RSI closes above 55 without a new high in price, this could signal a false breakout.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility spiked during the selloff, with prices trading well below the lower Bollinger Band. As price rebounded, it has since moved closer to the middle band, indicating a potential stabilization. A contraction in the band width overnight suggests a period of consolidation before a potential breakout could follow. Traders may watch for a reversal pattern near the lower band as a potential entry signal.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, particularly during the 15:00–16:00 ET timeframe, with a large candle at 17:15 ET showing a high volume of $147,339.16. However, volume dipped during the rebound, indicating weaker follow-through. Notional turnover increased in line with price declines but has softened during the recent rally. This volume divergence may caution about the strength of the current recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent low of $19.93 and high of $20.90, the 23.6% retrace is at $20.74, 38.2% at $20.62, 50% at $20.42, and 61.8% at $20.27. Price is currently near the 38.2% level and appears to be consolidating. A break above the 23.6% retrace could indicate a continuation of the short-term bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions at the close of a bullish engulfing pattern when RSI is in oversold territory (<30) and price is near the lower Bollinger Band. The strategy would also include a stop-loss below the low of the engulfing pattern and a take-profit at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent formation of a bullish engulfing pattern at $20.39–$20.41 and RSI near 30, a potential entry signal has emerged. If this setup holds and the 38.2% level at $20.62 is reached, the strategy could generate a favorable risk/reward ratio for short-term traders. The use of Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci levels enhances the probability of identifying a valid bounce.