Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) - 2025-09-19

• Price dropped sharply from 24.86 to 23.33 amid rising volume, signaling bearish momentum.
• A potential support level forms near 23.33, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 23.57.
• RSI and MACD show oversold conditions, suggesting a possible short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Bands, indicating heightened market uncertainty.
• Turnover spiked during the 04:15–09:00 ET window, confirming bearish sentiment.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $24.46 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, reached a high of $24.86, a low of $23.33, and closed at $23.85 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. Total volume over the 24-hour window was approximately 2,163,854.95, with total turnover reaching roughly $52.5 million. A sharp bearish move unfolded overnight, especially between 04:00 and 09:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

The price of LINKUSDT experienced a bearish breakdown from a prior consolidation range, forming a key bear flag pattern. A strong bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 04:15 ET, confirming the trend reversal. Multiple Doji candles appeared around 24.50, indicating indecision. The most recent support cluster is forming near 23.33–23.57, while the 23.80–23.95 range appears as a potential short-term resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming a bearish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at ~23.92, and the 20-period at ~23.97, suggesting the short-term bias remains bearish. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MAs are converging lower, aligning with the broader downtrend. The price remains below all three, reinforcing bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is negative, with both the line and signal line below zero, and the histogram has been contracting, suggesting fading bearish momentum. RSI stands at 25, indicating oversold conditions, which may lead to a short-term bounce. However, RSI is still below 30, suggesting caution for aggressive long positions.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded sharply, with the bands widening from a mid-24.40s contraction to a 23.33–24.86 range. The price closed near the lower band at 23.33, indicating a potential bounce could be imminent. The width of the bands suggests increased uncertainty and heightened sensitivity to news or order flow.

Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during the sharp 04:15–09:00 ET decline, particularly at 04:15 ET when nearly 132k units traded. Turnover also surged during this period, confirming the bearish move. However, the most recent candle at 12:00 ET showed a relatively lower volume, suggesting potential exhaustion in the bearish trend. A divergence between price and volume may hint at short-term stabilization.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 23.57 (61.8%) level is the most critical support ahead of the 23.33 (100%) level. The 23.80 (23.6%) and 23.95 (38.2%) levels may offer short-term resistance. On the daily chart, the 23.75–24.00 range represents key Fibonacci levels that traders may watch for potential bounces or further breakdowns.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be based on the bearish engulfing pattern observed at 04:15 ET, combined with the RSI falling into oversold territory. A possible hypothesis is to enter short positions after the pattern confirms, with a stop-loss above the engulfing high and a take-profit target at the next Fibonacci support. Traders might also use the 20-period MA as a dynamic sell signal, especially if the price fails to close above it over multiple candlesticks.