Market Overview for Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-10-04

• CTRY surged 5.3% over 24 hours, closing at 7.504 after a strong late-day rally into ET 12:00.
• Volatility increased, with a 15-minute candle reaching 7.811 and retracing to 7.331, indicating aggressive price swings.
• Strong volume (3.31M) and turnover ($24.9M) confirmed the breakout from 7.6–7.7 consolidation.
• RSI hit overbought levels (70+), while MACD remained bullish, suggesting extended momentum could wane.
• Bollinger Band expansion and a bullish engulfing pattern at 7.6–7.7 signaled a potential reversal.

CTRY traded between 7.168 and 7.811 over the past 24 hours, closing at 7.504 on 12:00 ET after opening at 7.188 the previous day. Total volume was 3.31 million units, with a notional turnover of approximately $24.9 million. The price displayed strong upward bias, especially during the early trading hours.

Structure & Formations

The price structure reveals a bullish breakout from the 7.6–7.7 range following a consolidation period. A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 7.6–7.7, confirming a reversal in sentiment. A key support level was identified at 7.49–7.51, with a 7.65–7.70 resistance cluster showing initial rejection. A doji formed at 7.754 (8:15 ET), hinting at indecision and possible consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are aligned bullish, supporting a continuation bias. The daily chart’s 50/100/200 SMA crossover remains bullish, with the 50 SMA above the 100 and 200 SMA. Price remains above the 200 SMA, suggesting a stronger uptrend is intact for now.

MACD & RSI

MACD shows a bullish signal with a strong positive divergence and a recent cross above the signal line. RSI has moved into overbought territory (70+), indicating stretched momentum and a potential pullback. While the MACD confirms bullish energy, the overbought RSI suggests caution as overextensions often precede corrections.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly in response to the increased volatility. Price closed at 7.504, which is comfortably above the mid-band but near the lower band, suggesting a possible reversal. A contraction is expected if the price stabilizes within the band, though the recent expansion indicates heightened buying pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged late in the session, especially in the 8:00–9:00 ET window, with a 247,172-unit candle driving the price to 7.822. Notional turnover also spiked during this time, indicating strong participation. Divergence is observed in the 10:00–12:00 ET period, where volume declined while price dipped, suggesting a potential bearish signal as conviction wanes.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart suggest 7.535 (38.2%) and 7.635 (61.8%) as potential retracement levels. These levels could serve as psychological pivots for near-term directional bias. The daily chart shows a 61.8% retrace at 7.645, which may act as a key support or resistance if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy would involve using the bullish engulfing pattern and RSI overbought levels as a sell entry signal. By entering short positions at key Fibonacci retracement levels (7.635–7.70) and exiting on a close below the 7.555 support, traders could potentially capture countertrend profit. This approach may be validated using historical data from recent 15-minute candle patterns, focusing on entries during strong volume surges and RSI divergence.