Market Overview for Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) – 2025-10-03

• Price opened at 7.099 and surged to 7.361 before correcting to 7.083, with a 24-hour high-to-low range of 7.361–7.029.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 7.207, followed by bearish divergence in late-session volume, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
• Volatility expanded during the 15-minute chart's peak at 7.361, with volume spiking to 28,096.1, while RSI signaled overbought conditions before a pullback.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the morning high and contraction near the 24-hour low, hinting at a possible consolidation phase.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest 7.25–7.30 as a potential resistance cluster and 7.10–7.05 as a support zone on the 15-minute chart.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 7.099 on October 2, peaked at 7.361, and closed at 7.083 on October 3. The 24-hour range spanned 7.029 to 7.361, with total trading volume of 608,199.4 and notional turnover of ~4.32 million. The price displayed a sharp midday rally, followed by a bearish pullback into the overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

CTRY displayed a bullish engulfing pattern at 7.207–7.223, signaling a short-term reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. A doji formed at 7.307, indicating indecision among traders. Later in the session, a bearish inside bar pattern emerged at 7.16–7.185, hinting at a possible short-term top. The price also retraced to 7.083, which aligns with a Fibonacci 61.8% level of a previous upleg, suggesting a potential support level for near-term buyers.

Moving Averages & Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed multiple times, reflecting choppy conditions. The 50-period line hovered around 7.22–7.24, while the 20-period MA was more reactive to price spikes. The daily chart showed the 50 and 200-period moving averages converging near 7.15–7.16, with price fluctuating just above this level during the overnight hours. RSI climbed to overbought levels near 7.361 and then dropped into neutral territory by the close, suggesting exhaustion in the upward move.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning hours as the price approached 7.361, indicating rising volatility. This was followed by a contraction near the 24-hour low at 7.029, suggesting potential consolidation. The price closed near the lower band at 7.083, hinting at a possible rebound. A breakout above the 7.25–7.30 resistance zone could trigger another expansion in band width, while a retest of the 7.05–7.10 support zone may offer a buying opportunity for short-term traders.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 28,096.1 during the morning high at 7.361, confirming strength in the rally. However, volume dipped to 6983.1 and 19498.0 in the final hours, despite a continued price decline, indicating weakening bearish conviction. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking during the morning high and declining gradually through the evening. A divergence between volume and price in the late session suggests caution ahead of any further moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key retracement levels include 7.25 (38.2%) and 7.30 (61.8%) as potential resistance levels, with 7.15–7.10 as the next major support zone. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the most recent bull move aligns with 7.05–7.10, which appears to be holding as a floor. A break below 7.05 could target 7.00–6.95, but such a move would require significant follow-through volume and bearish conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves using a combination of RSI and volume to identify short-term overbought conditions and confirm divergence. A trade entry is triggered when RSI exceeds 70 (overbought) and is followed by a bearish divergence in volume, as observed in the late-session pullback around 7.16–7.185. Stops are placed below key support levels like 7.05, with targets aligned with Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% retracements on the 15-minute chart. Given the recent volatility and mixed volume patterns, this approach may offer a high-probability trade for short-term traders targeting a rebound or continuation based on divergences and retracements.