Market Overview for CETUSUSDT on 2025-09-06

• Price declined from 0.0903 to 0.0882 over 24 hours, with a key low at 0.0886.
• Volume spiked during midday ET, confirming bearish pressure.
• RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum with no immediate overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded after 05:00 ET as price broke below key support.
• Bollinger Bands widened, showing increased uncertainty and a possible trend continuation.

The Cetus Protocol/Tether USDt pair (CETUSUSDT) opened at 0.0901 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0882 on 2025-09-06 at 12:00 ET. Price moved between a high of 0.0910 and a low of 0.0882, with total volume of 43,290,469.5 and turnover of 3,878,635.23 USD. A bearish trend took hold after a key support level was breached midday, confirmed by volume and momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

The pair formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 21:30 ET, followed by a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.0895. Resistance levels appear at 0.0903 and 0.0907, while 0.0886 acts as short-term support. A long-legged doji at 05:45 ET suggested indecision, followed by a sharp breakdown at 09:15 ET, where volume spiked and price gapped below 0.0900. Price may test 0.0880 next, with a possible rebound if bullish volume confirms.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.0898) crossed below the 50-period MA (0.0896), indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.0902, with the 100-period MA at 0.0904 and 200-period MA at 0.0907, suggesting the price is below key long-term support.

MACD & RSI

The 12-period MACD turned negative after 07:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. RSI declined from 57 to 43 over the course of the day, entering oversold territory near 40 but without a meaningful rebound, indicating a lack of immediate buying interest. Price may continue lower unless RSI breaks above 50 with a volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded after 05:00 ET as volatility increased, with price trading near the lower band at 0.0886. A sustained move above the 20-period MA may contract the bands and reduce volatility, but current momentum suggests the trend is likely to continue.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 09:15 ET and 16:00 ET, confirming the breakdowns at 0.0886 and 0.0882. Notional turnover peaked at $311,115.60 during the first breakdown and at $187,682.30 during the final decline. The correlation between price and turnover remains strong, with no divergence seen, suggesting the bearish trend may persist.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from 0.0903 (21:30 ET) to 0.0882 (16:00 ET), the 38.2% level is at 0.0892, and the 61.8% level is at 0.0887. Price broke below 0.0886 at 09:15 ET, suggesting a deeper retracement to 0.0882 is likely. If buyers push back above 0.0892, a consolidation phase may follow.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions upon a break of the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.0887) with confirmation from the 20-period MA crossing below price and a MACD crossover to negative territory. Stops could be placed above 0.0892, with targets at 0.0882 and 0.0875. This approach would aim to capture the continuation of the bearish trend observed in the 15-minute OHLC data, particularly between 09:15 and 16:00 ET. Volume spikes at these times add confidence to the validity of the strategy.