Market Overview for Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) – September 26, 2025

• Price dropped 3.12% over 24 hours, with a bearish continuation after a failed rebound from support at 0.073
• Volatility remained elevated, with Bollinger Bands expanding, indicating increased market uncertainty
• Turnover spiked during early evening ET as price hit 0.073, but failed to sustain a rebound
• RSI fell into oversold territory near 0.072, signaling potential for a short-term bounce
• No strong bullish momentum on MACD, with the histogram shrinking, suggesting bearish momentum

Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) opened at 0.0765 on September 25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0767, touched a low of 0.0715, and closed at 0.0736 as of September 26 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a total volume of 8,508,628.7 units and a notional turnover of $642,733.01, reflecting a 24-hour bearish trend with intermittent resistance attempts.

1. Structure & Formations

Price tested key support levels at 0.073 and 0.072, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming on the 15-minute chart as the price broke below 0.073. A doji candle appeared near 0.0728, signaling indecision. Resistance at 0.0735–0.0737 has been tested multiple times over the last 24 hours, but buyers have failed to push above it, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed below the price, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, with the 100-period line also below the 50-period, reinforcing the downtrend. Price is currently below all three, suggesting continued selling pressure.

3. MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been shrinking throughout the session, indicating weakening bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen to oversold territory (below 30) at 0.072, which may trigger a short-term bounce. However, a sustained move above 0.0735 is needed for bullish confirmation, and RSI remains below 50, indicating that the bearish trend is intact.

4. Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded throughout the 24-hour period, with the price frequently touching the lower band as it approached 0.072–0.073. A contraction in volatility is yet to occur, which may signal a potential reversal. The price remains near the lower band, indicating continued bearish pressure and a lack of conviction on the buy side.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon and evening ET as price broke below 0.073, with a sharp increase in notional turnover confirming the bearish breakout. The most active candle was at 0.073 on September 26 at 10:15 ET, with over $27,377 notional turnover. A divergence between rising volume and falling price indicates strong bearish conviction, with no signs of a reversal in sight.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (from the high of 0.0767 to the low of 0.0715) sits at approximately 0.073, aligning with recent price action. The 38.2% level is at around 0.0745, which appears as a psychological resistance. The price tested 0.073 and failed to hold, suggesting the next target is the 50% retracement level at 0.0741, though bearish momentum currently outweighs short-term support.

7. Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described is based on a short-term bearish breakout model that triggers a sell signal when price breaks below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a volume surge. The target entry is placed at the breakout level, with a stop-loss above the recent high of the 15-minute candle. A take-profit is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, with an exit at the 20-period MA if the trade moves against the position. Given today’s price action and pattern confirmation at 0.073, the model would have triggered a valid sell signal during the afternoon.

Forward-Looking View & Risk Caveat

Looking ahead, the near-term path for CETUSUSDT appears to be lower, with a potential target near 0.072 and 0.0717 if the bearish trend continues. A break above 0.0735 could trigger a short-term consolidation phase, but sustained momentum above that level is unlikely without a broader shift in market conditions. Traders should remain cautious of a potential bounce from oversold RSI levels, though any such move is likely to be short-lived without a significant change in volume and sentiment.