Market Overview for Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) on 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price opened at $0.0418 and closed at $0.0414 within a $0.042–$0.0387 range.
• Volume was elevated during late-night to early morning hours.
• Momentum turned bearish in the final hours, pushing price toward a short-term support level.

Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) opened at $0.0418 on 2025-11-12 and traded as high as $0.042 before settling at $0.0414 at 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 13,905,701.6 and the notional turnover was $568,428.27.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish bias in the final 6 hours of the cycle, with a series of lower lows and lower highs emerging after a tentative rebound. Notable support levels include $0.0406 and $0.0396, with the former acting as a potential floor in the short term. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 05:30 and 06:00 ET, suggesting short-term selling pressure could persist.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the bearish side in the evening, reinforcing downward momentum. On the daily chart, the price remained below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a medium-term bearish setup.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative in the late afternoon and remained bearish into the close, with the histogram diverging from price action in the last 4 hours. The RSI reached oversold territory briefly in the early morning but failed to generate a bounce, suggesting a weak short-term recovery.

Bollinger Bands

The price spent much of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, especially in the final 6 hours, confirming weak volatility and bearish pressure. A contraction in the bands was observed from 06:00 to 09:00 ET, followed by a modest expansion during the morning rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 03:00 to 06:00 ET period, particularly on the 05:00–06:00 ET candle, where over 750,000 CETUS changed hands. This volume supported the bearish move. However, divergence appeared in the final 2 hours as volume decreased while price continued lower, indicating potential exhaustion of the short-term sell-off.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.042–0.0396 swing, the price held above the 61.8% retracement at $0.0409 but failed to break the 78.6% level. A break below $0.0406 would target the 88.6% retracement at $0.0398. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement remains key for near-term sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest using a 10-day RSI to signal entry into CETUSUSDT when the indicator hit oversold conditions showed mixed results. Despite a modest 6.98% gain over the 3-day period, the high drawdown of 7.26% and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.44 suggest the strategy is volatile and not robust. This aligns with the observed RSI divergence and weak bounce from oversold levels, indicating that the pair may not reliably reverse from such conditions.