Market Overview for Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) - 2025-10-12

• Price opened at $0.0485, dropped to $0.0444, and closed at $0.0475 after a rebound
• Sharp sell-off in early ET hours saw a 9.3% drop to $0.0444 followed by consolidation
• Volatility surged during sell-off but has since normalized with low divergence in price and volume
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30, suggesting possible short-term bounce
• Final 15-minute candle closed at $0.0475 with increased buying pressure

The Cetus Protocol/Tether pair (CETUSUSDT) opened at $0.0485 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0475 on the following day at the same time. The 24-hour period saw a high of $0.0489 and a low of $0.0439. Total volume was approximately 18.8 million units, with a notional turnover of around $882,000.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price movement for CETUSUSDT revealed a sharp bearish break below $0.0480 in early ET hours, with a low at $0.0444, followed by a recovery. Key support levels were identified at $0.0444 and $0.0450, with $0.0475 emerging as a temporary floor for the rebound. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at the start of the sell-off, while a bullish harami emerged during the consolidation phase near $0.0475. A doji appeared at $0.0444, signaling indecision and potential reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in bearish alignment for much of the day, with the 20-period crossing below the 50-period (death cross) during the sharp selloff. However, after the price rebound, the 20-period began to rise and approached the 50-period, suggesting short-term bullish momentum could build. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages were in a bullish alignment, supporting a longer-term buying bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line confirmed bearish momentum during the initial drop but began to show bullish divergence during the rebound, with the signal line crossing above the MACD line after 12:00 ET on October 12. The RSI reached oversold territory at 29 during the low at $0.0444, indicating potential for a near-term bounce. However, the RSI has remained below 50, suggesting a cautious outlook for further bullish moves.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early sell-off, with the lower band dipping below $0.0440 and the price reaching the lower band at $0.0444. Following the rebound, volatility contracted, and the price remained within the band's boundaries, indicating a consolidation phase. Price tested the upper band during the recovery phase, especially after 4:00 ET, suggesting traders are monitoring key resistance levels near $0.0480.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the initial sell-off, with a 15-minute candle at 19:30 ET recording 2.72 million units and $131,000 in turnover, the highest of the day. As the price recovered, volume decreased, suggesting the initial bearish wave may have exhausted. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, confirming bearish conviction during the selloff and weaker follow-through buying. No significant price-volume divergence was observed during the rebound phase, supporting the idea that the bounce has technical validity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from $0.0489 to $0.0444 identified key levels for possible bounce points. The 38.2% retracement at $0.0465 and the 61.8% retracement at $0.0471 coincided with areas of price consolidation. The 100% retracement at $0.0478 aligned with the final 15-minute candle close at $0.0475, suggesting a potential short-term equilibrium.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions at the 38.2% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels during a 15-minute bullish bounce, with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low and a take-profit at the 100% retracement level. Given the recent consolidation at $0.0475 and the RSI hitting oversold levels, this strategy could offer a favorable risk-reward profile if the pair continues to retest key resistance levels. This aligns with the current technical indicators, particularly the MACD divergence and the price action near the lower Bollinger Band.