Market Overview for Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) – October 3–4, 2025

• CELOUSDT opened at $0.3551 and surged to a high of $0.4117 before consolidating to close near $0.3504.
• The 24-hour candle shows a distinct bearish reversal from a strong bullish breakout.
• Volume spiked during the morning UTC high of $0.4117, then waned during the pullback.
• RSI overbought levels (above 65) during the rally suggest exhaustion and reversal risk.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the peak, followed by a contraction during the sell-off.

Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at $0.3551 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and surged to a high of $0.4117 before closing at $0.3504 by 12:00 ET on October 4. The 24-hour volume totaled 32.39 million CELO, with a notional turnover of $11.55 million. The price action reflects a strong bullish thrust in the early hours of October 4, followed by a significant bearish correction.

Structure & Formations

CELOUSDT formed a clear bearish reversal pattern on the 15-minute chart after reaching the high of $0.4117. This candlestick, characterized by a long upper wick and a bearish close, resembles a shooting star, signaling a potential top. The price subsequently tested a key support level around $0.3650 and broke below it, forming a bearish engulfing pattern at the $0.3700 level. A possible support level lies at the recent swing low of $0.3504, with resistance reappearing at $0.3650 if the pair bounces from the current level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, confirming bearish momentum. The daily chart shows the price closing below the 50-period and 100-period SMAs, with the 200-period SMA acting as a critical long-term support at ~$0.3250. A sustained close below the 100 SMA on the daily chart could signal a deeper correction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after the price peaked at $0.4117, confirming bearish divergence. The histogram showed a sharp contraction during the pullback, suggesting waning momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (70+), peaked at ~82, and has since dropped to ~45, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend. The RSI is approaching the oversold threshold (~30), which may offer a short-term buying opportunity, though without a clear breakout from the descending trend line, this should be viewed with caution.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally to $0.4117, reaching a width of ~$0.05, before contracting during the sharp sell-off. The price closed near the middle band but is showing signs of pushing below the lower band, suggesting an increase in bearish volatility. A retest of the lower band could confirm a bearish breakdown or signal a potential rebound.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred during the 16:45 UTC candle, with $4.75 million in turnover as the price surged to $0.4117. Subsequent candles showed a sharp decline in volume, indicating a loss of buyer conviction. The low volume during the sell-off suggests a lack of panic selling, possibly indicating a correction within a broader consolidation phase rather than a full-scale bear trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing high of $0.4117 and the swing low of $0.3504, the 38.2% level sits at ~$0.3790 and the 61.8% level at ~$0.3600. The price appears to be approaching the 61.8% retracement level and may find temporary support or resistance there. A break below $0.3600 could target the 78.6% level at ~$0.3475.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy outlined is based on using a combination of the RSI (14) and MACD histogram on the 15-minute chart to identify overbought conditions and bearish divergence. A long entry would be triggered on a bullish RSI crossover above 45 and a positive MACD histogram expansion, while a short entry would be signaled on an RSI over 70 and a negative MACD histogram contraction. Given the current RSI at ~45 and the MACD still trending downward, the conditions for a short entry are not yet met, but a bearish signal could be triggered if RSI remains above 50 while the histogram continues to contract. The strategy would benefit from tighter stop-loss levels around the Fibonacci levels discussed above and would be best applied during high-volume hours (e.g., 16:00–19:00 UTC).