Market Overview for Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT)

• Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) declined sharply overnight, reaching a 24-hour low near $0.2547 before consolidating near $0.2688.
• Momentum weakened in the early hours of ET with RSI hitting oversold levels and volume spiking during the selloff.
• Volatility expanded as price fell below a key 15-minute Bollinger Band midpoint and gapped below prior support.
• Turnover surged during the overnight leg down, indicating increased participation from larger players.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the pre-ET range, confirming bearish sentiment.

Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at $0.2985 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of $0.2547 before closing at $0.2688 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The total volume over the 24-hour period reached 16,639,421.74, and the notional turnover was approximately $4,534,688.75. Price action reflected a significant bearish shift, with volatility and momentum aligning on a continuation of downward pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish trend with strong support identified at $0.2688 and a key resistance level at $0.2718. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared during the early ET hours, indicating a shift in sentiment. A notable doji formed at $0.2688, suggesting potential indecision at the current support level. Fibonacci retracement levels showed the 61.8% level aligning near $0.2692, which was briefly tested but failed to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, with price below both. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages are also declining, reinforcing the bearish bias. The current close at $0.2688 is below all moving averages, suggesting continued downward pressure is likely unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained negative throughout the 24-hour window, with a bearish crossover confirming the downward move. RSI has dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, though this has not yet triggered a bounce. The combination of bearish momentum and oversold RSI suggests a potential bounce or consolidation could occur near current support levels, but a bearish continuation remains probable.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price moved significantly below the lower Bollinger Band during the overnight selloff, with the band widening in response to increased volatility. The current price at $0.2688 is near the lower band, suggesting potential for a mean reversion move toward the mid-band, though bearish continuation is also possible depending on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the overnight leg down, with the largest 15-minute turnover occurring at 2025-09-22 06:15 ET when price dropped to $0.2715. This was followed by a large move to $0.2547, indicating participation from institutional or algorithmic traders. Turnover and volume aligned with price action, confirming the bearish sentiment rather than signaling a divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.2979 to $0.2547, the 38.2% level is at $0.2759 and the 61.8% level is at $0.2682—near current price. A move above $0.2718 could target the 38.2% level, while a break below $0.2682 may lead toward the 50% retracement at $0.2613. Daily Fibonacci levels also suggest the $0.2570 level as a possible short-term target if the current bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on a mean reversion approach triggered when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band and RSI falls into oversold territory. A long entry could be considered if a bullish reversal candle forms near key Fibonacci support levels, with a stop-loss placed just below the most recent 15-minute low. This strategy would rely on the assumption that volatility expansions often precede reversion moves, particularly when supported by volume. Given the current alignment of Fibonacci and RSI signals, this hypothesis could be tested on similar 15-minute timeframes in volatile conditions.