Market Overview: Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) – Volatile 24-Hour Session with Bearish Reversal

• TIAUSDT posted a 24-hour high of $1.081, but closed at $1.003, down from the prior 12-hour open of $0.933.
• Strong bearish reversal is evident after the 24-hour volume surged to 36.3 million contracts and turnover hit $35.7 million.
• A key resistance at $1.055 failed, and price now consolidates near a 61.8% Fib level from the $0.927 to $1.081 swing.
• MACD turned negative with bearish divergence, and RSI fell into oversold territory at 26, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Volatility expanded during the 24-hour session, with prices moving between the 1.002–1.081 range before settling near mid-band on Bollinger Bands.

Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) opened at $0.933 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $1.081 before closing at $1.003 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-08. The pair reached a low of $0.927 during the 24-hour period, exhibiting a sharp intraday correction. Total volume amounted to 36.3 million contracts, while notional turnover stood at $35.7 million, indicating strong participation and sentiment shifts.

On the 15-minute chart, TIAUSDT formed several bearish reversal patterns, including a large bearish engulfing candle at $1.081, followed by a long-legged doji at $1.059. Price action showed clear rejection at key resistance levels, with the 20-period and 50-period SMAs diverging below the current price, indicating bearish momentum. The 50/100/200-period SMAs on the daily chart remain bearishly aligned, reinforcing a short-term downtrend.

MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover and showed a divergence from price action, signaling weakening bullish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory at 26, which could indicate a short-term rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.996. Bollinger Bands expanded during the session, and the closing price sits near the mid-band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead.

The 15-minute volume profile showed a sharp spike in turnover at the $1.08–$1.07 level, coinciding with the bearish reversal candle. Notional turnover at this level exceeded $4.5 million, suggesting significant shorting pressure. Volume and price action aligned at key Fibonacci and trendline levels, indicating strong institutional involvement in the correction.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy evaluated the performance of a trend-following approach based on the Bullish Engulfing pattern and a 3-day holding period. By applying this strategy to TIAUSDT’s historical close data since 2022, we aim to assess the pattern's predictive value in capturing short-term market movements. Given the observed bearish divergence and oversold conditions today, a similar approach using a Bearish Engulfing pattern or a reversal breakout could be tested in future iterations.