Market Overview: Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) – 24-Hour Breakdown

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• TIAUSDT opened at $1.495 and closed at $1.488 after a volatile 24-hour range between $1.464 and $1.511
• Price retested the $1.502 high and $1.472 low with bearish and bullish pressure evident in late hours
• RSI signaled overbought conditions above 65 and oversold near 30, suggesting momentum divergence
• Notional turnover exceeded $14.5 million with volume spiking during key consolidation and breakouts
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the 24-hour high, while a bullish engulfing formed near $1.472

Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) opened at $1.495 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.488 on 2025-09-23 at the same time. The pair reached a high of $1.511 and a low of $1.464 during the 24-hour period, reflecting strong intraday volatility. Total notional turnover was approximately $14.5 million, with volume reaching 18.7 million TIA.

Structurally, the pair formed a bullish engulfing pattern at the $1.472 level following a sharp pullback, indicating potential short-term accumulation. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the $1.502 resistance level, highlighting profit-taking and bearish pressure. Key support levels at $1.485 and $1.475, and resistance levels at $1.502 and $1.508, were tested multiple times, with mixed follow-through. A doji near $1.495 suggested indecision amid a potential pivot point.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in both bullish and bearish directions, suggesting a mixed trend. The 50-period moving average remained above the 20-period, indicating a bearish bias for the shorter term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed the 100-period and 200-period MAs to the downside, reinforcing a medium-term bearish bias. The 15-minute chart showed a stronger bearish divergence between price and volume in late trading.

The MACD remained bearish through the latter half of the 24-hour period, with the line crossing below the signal line after a brief positive spike. RSI reached overbought levels above 65 in the early morning hours, followed by a sharp decline into oversold territory. Bollinger Bands expanded during the price’s $1.464 to $1.511 swing, with the close at $1.488 sitting near the midline, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. Volatility contraction near the 24-hour open indicated a setup for a breakout, which was partially fulfilled.

Fibonacci retracement levels aligned with key intraday pivots. The $1.485 level aligned with the 61.8% retracement of the $1.464 to $1.502 move, acting as strong support. The 38.2% retracement at $1.493 also saw repeated pressure as a potential resistance level. These levels provide key reference points for short-term positioning and risk management.

Backtest Hypothesis: The proposed strategy is a trend-following approach using the 50-period and 200-period moving averages on the daily chart as entry signals, with RSI and Bollinger Band divergence used to refine trade timing. A long entry would be triggered when the 50-period MA crosses above the 200-period MA (golden cross), and the RSI is above 30 with a Bollinger Band contraction. A short entry would occur on a death cross (50-period MA below 200-period MA), with RSI above 70 and a Bollinger Band expansion. Stop-loss would be placed at the 1:1 risk-reward ratio from entry, with a take-profit target at the nearest Fibonacci level. Based on the recent pattern and RSI divergence, this approach could have captured the recent $1.464 to $1.511 swing with a favorable risk-reward ratio.