Market Overview for Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price fell from $1.51 to $1.41 amid a strong volume-driven bearish trend.
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish momentum with no signs of reversal.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility surged; price remained below the midline.
• Volume increased as price dropped, suggesting strong selling pressure.
• Fibonacci levels at $1.43 and $1.47 show potential near-term significance.

The Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) pair opened at $1.47 on 2025-10-08 12:00 ET, reached a high of $1.516, and closed at $1.437 by 2025-10-09 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $1.407. Total volume traded was 1,158,968.96 TIA, with a notional turnover of $1,628,244.65 USD. The pair exhibited a clear bearish bias, with price dropping below key support levels on increasing volume.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a descending broadening formation, with a bearish flag pattern visible around $1.49–1.51 and a breakdown at $1.45. A key support level was identified at $1.43–1.44, with a notable bullish pinocchio candle on 2025-10-09 09:30 ET. Resistance remains at $1.47–1.48 and $1.50–1.51. A long lower shadow on the 09:30 candle may indicate buying interest at lower levels, but bearish momentum remains strong.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period SMAs were in a steep downward trend, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily scale, the 50-period SMA sits at approximately $1.46, with the 200-period SMA at $1.48. Price closed below all three key moving averages, indicating a strong downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative throughout the session, with the histogram showing bearish divergence. The RSI dropped from overbought (75+) to oversold (35) territory, confirming a strong sell-off. Although in oversold territory, RSI did not indicate a strong reversal signal, as bearish momentum remained intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the breakdown phase, showing heightened volatility. Price remained below the midline and closed near the lower band, suggesting continued bearish pressure. The widening bands indicate a potential continuation of the downtrend rather than a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased steadily as the price moved lower, with a large spike during the breakdown at $1.43–1.45. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, confirming bearish conviction. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, reinforcing the strength of the downtrend. High-volume bearish candles around 14:45–15:00 ET signaled significant selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were drawn from the $1.407 low to the $1.516 high. Key retracement levels at 38.2% ($1.466) and 61.8% ($1.446) acted as resistance and support respectively. Price found temporary support at the 61.8% level, but failed to hold it. A break below $1.43 could test the next Fibonacci level at $1.418.

Backtest Hypothesis

A possible backtesting strategy involves a short-biased entry on a breakout below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop loss above the 38.2% level. The MACD and RSI can be used to confirm bearish momentum before entry. A trailing stop could be set as price moves lower. This approach aligns with the observed downtrend and increasing bearish conviction seen in the 24-hour data.