Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) – October 5, 2025

• ADAJPY surged past key resistance in the last 24 hours, reaching a high of 129.46.
• A bullish momentum build-up is visible with RSI rising and volume amplifying during the rally.
• Volatility spiked during the early hours, with price moving well above the upper Bollinger Band.
• A divergence in price and volume was noted in the final hour, signaling possible exhaustion.
• The 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line early on, reinforcing the bullish trend.

ADAJPY opened at 123.28 on October 4 at 12:00 ET and surged to an intraday high of 129.46 before closing at 125.97 at 12:00 ET on October 5. The pair traded within a volatile range of 123.28–129.46. Total volume over 24 hours stood at approximately 1,259,028 units, while notional turnover reached $161,773,504 (assuming 1 ADAJPY = 1 yen, as no ticker price is provided).

Structure & Formations

ADAJPY formed multiple bullish patterns over the last 24 hours, including a key breakout above the 124.36 resistance level, followed by an engulfing bullish candle on October 4 at 21:30 ET. A notable bullish trend emerged from October 4 at 20:30 ET, with the price surging past the 125.67 level and forming a strong 126.92 high. The move from 124.54 to 126.92 was supported by increasing volume and a strong continuation pattern. A bearish correction followed in the early morning hours of October 5, with the price retreating back to the 125.97 level by the close.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line at 02:00 ET on October 5, forming a bullish "golden cross." The 50-period MA remained well above the 100-period line on the daily chart, indicating a strong bullish bias for the pair. The 200-period MA, however, acted as a key resistance level in the early hours of October 5, as the price retested this level before rebounding.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a clear bullish expansion between 02:00 and 05:00 ET, confirming the strength of the upward move. The RSI indicator reached levels above 65 during the rally, indicating overbought conditions but failing to trigger a bearish reversal. A key divergence emerged in the last hour of the 24-hour window, with the RSI peaking while the price continued to rise, hinting at possible short-term exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early hours of October 5, with the price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band and reaching 126.92. This expansion followed a period of consolidation between 124.54 and 126.60. By the close, the price remained above the mid-Bollinger Band, indicating a strong bullish momentum that could either consolidate or continue higher in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout above 125.67, with a 15-minute candle on October 5 at 02:45 ET showing a volume of 80,635 units. Turnover surged to $10,436,155 in that timeframe, confirming the strength of the move. However, in the final hour of the 24-hour period, the volume declined despite a continued price rise, suggesting a potential weakening of the bullish bias. This divergence could indicate an impending pullback or a consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the key swing from 123.28 (October 4, 16:00 ET) to 129.46 (October 5, 08:00 ET) showed the 61.8% level at 127.29 being tested in the morning hours. The price held above this level before surging higher, indicating strong buyer participation. On a daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the October 4 low to the October 5 high sits near 127.71, a level that appears to have provided support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish breakout and the confirmation by the 20-period moving average, a backtest strategy could be designed to enter long positions on a 15-minute chart when the price closes above the 20-period MA and RSI moves above 50, with a stop-loss placed just below the 50-period MA. A profit target could be set at the 126.80 level, which acted as a key support-turned-resistance in the early hours of the rally. This strategy could be backtested over the last 7 days to evaluate its effectiveness in a volatile and trending environment.