Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) – October 23, 2025

• ADAJPY opened at 96.78, surged to 98.55, and closed at 98.30 amid volatile 24-hour trading.
• Key support tested at 93.48 with strong bearish momentum observed from 21:15 ET to 02:30 ET.
• A bullish reversal pattern emerged near 94.70, coinciding with a sharp volume increase.
• RSI moved from oversold to overbought, suggesting potential momentum divergence.
• Bollinger Band widening and a sharp increase in turnover highlight rising volatility.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) traded between 93.48 and 98.55 over the past 24 hours, with a 12:00 ET close of 98.30 compared to the prior day's 12:00 ET open of 96.78. Total traded volume reached 925,536.7, while notional turnover stood at $88,499,600. The price action included a sharp bearish phase from 21:15 to 02:30 ET and a strong rally afterward, with notable volume spikes supporting the reversal.

Structure & Formations

A key support level was observed at 93.48, where the pair found a temporary floor and began to rebound. A bullish reversal formation occurred as prices rebounded from this level with increasing volume. Later, a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern formed around 94.70, signaling a potential short-term reversal. On the upside, resistance emerged near 97.78, 98.02, and 98.40, with the latter level failing to hold. The price action suggests that 97.72 may become a new support level if the 93.48 level fails to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverged, with the 20-period line rising above the 50-period, confirming bullish momentum in the late hours. The 50-period moving average on the daily chart crossed above the 100-period line, suggesting that the pair may continue to trade higher in the near term. This suggests a potential trend continuation from the recent recovery.

MACD & RSI

The 12:00 ET close showed the RSI at 68, having moved from an oversold level of 29 early in the session. This indicates strong bullish momentum, though the RSI is approaching the 70 overbought threshold, which may suggest a potential short-term correction. The MACD was positive and rising, with the signal line tracking closely, reinforcing the view that bullish momentum remains intact. However, a divergence between price and MACD during the late morning hours may hint at a potential slowdown.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late hours, indicating heightened volatility. Prices closed near the upper band for several 15-minute periods after 05:00 ET, suggesting overbought conditions. Earlier in the session, prices touched the lower band at 93.48, marking a potential turning point. The widening of the bands is consistent with increased buying and selling pressure, reinforcing the case for continued price action consolidation or a reversal in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged from 05:00 to 07:00 ET, peaking at 45,232.5 during the hourly 06:30 ET window, coinciding with the 97.78–98.40 price surge. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, increasing to $4.3 million during the same period. This volume surge confirmed the bullish price action, with no significant divergence observed between price and volume. However, a slight divergence emerged between 10:00 and 12:00 ET as prices rose with slightly lower volume, suggesting that momentum may be weakening slightly in the final hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 93.48–98.55 swing, key levels at 96.16 (38.2%), 97.36 (61.8%), and 98.55 (100%) were tested throughout the session. The 61.8% retracement level at 97.36 acted as a minor support during the bearish phase, while the 100% level failed to hold, indicating a potential topping pattern. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level of a prior bearish move is currently at 97.80, which appears to coincide with recent resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

For the backtesting strategy on ADAJPY, the accuracy of the ticker symbol is critical for reliable data retrieval. The symbol “ADAJPY” appears not to be recognized, which could lead to inaccurate or missing technical indicators such as RSI and MACD. For a robust strategy, confirming the correct ticker—such as “ADA_JPY” or another valid format—is essential.

Additionally, defining the RSI overbought threshold and the maximum holding period will shape the strategy's risk and reward characteristics. A more conservative RSI overbought level (e.g., 70) might result in more exits compared to a looser threshold (e.g., 80). Similarly, testing holding periods of 3, 4, and 5 days will help identify the most optimal timeframe for entries and exits based on ADAJPY’s volatility profile observed in this session.