Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) – 24-Hour Summary

Summary
• Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) rose from 85.93 to 89.74 before retracing to close at 89.31, with total volume of 1.37M and turnover of 98.3M JPY.
• Strong bullish momentum seen early, but overbought RSI and declining volume signal potential pullback.
• Key support confirmed at 88.79 with 88.43 as a secondary level, while 90.0–91.03 mark recent resistance.

Opening and Price Action

ADAJPY opened at 85.93 on 2025-11-07 17:00 ET and surged to an intraday high of 91.03 during the early hours of the morning on 2025-11-08. It then retraced sharply, closing at 89.31 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the pair experienced a high of 91.03 and a low of 85.82. Total volume traded was 1,371,711, with a notional turnover of approximately 98.3 million JPY.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed multiple bullish formations, including a bullish engulfing pattern at the intraday high (91.03) followed by a bearish engulfing pattern signaling a potential reversal. A doji formed near 89.38, hinting at indecision among buyers and sellers. Key support levels appear to be at 88.79 and 88.43, with resistance confirmed between 90.0 and 91.03.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands indicated a moderate expansion in volatility, with price fluctuating near the upper and lower bands during key reversal points, especially after 02:00 ET.

The daily timeframe shows a longer-term bearish bias, as the price remains below the 200-period MA. This may indicate that the current rally is a corrective bounce within a broader downtrend.

MACD, RSI, and Momentum

The RSI reached an overbought level above 70 during the morning session, which typically precedes a correction, especially when volume declines. The MACD turned bearish in the afternoon and evening, with the histogram showing a decline in bullish momentum. This suggests that the upward thrust has weakened, and the market may consolidate or pull back in the near term.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the morning rally but declined significantly during the afternoon and evening sell-off, suggesting a lack of buyer participation. Total turnover of 98.3 million JPY was concentrated in the early part of the day, particularly between 18:00 and 22:00 ET. A divergence between rising price and falling volume in the last half of the session could signal a potential top.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings show a 61.8% retracement at approximately 89.31, which aligns with the closing price. The 38.2% retracement level was at 89.88, and the pair briefly touched this level before falling back. On the daily timeframe, the 61.8% retracement of the larger bearish move remains at 88.43, where the price found support in the evening.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the price behavior observed, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on confirmed bullish engulfing patterns during early morning sessions, with a target exit on a bearish engulfing or a doji reversal near key resistance levels. A stop-loss should be placed below the most recent support or at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This approach would align with the observed price patterns and volume dynamics, particularly given the morning rally and the evening sell-off observed on the 15-minute chart.