Market Overview: Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) 24-Hour Summary

• ADAJPY surged 6.4% over 24 hours, forming bullish momentum and key resistance levels above 140.
• Volatility expanded during Asian hours, with a massive volume spike at 10:45 AM ET.
• RSI remains in overbought territory, indicating potential pullback risk ahead.
• Price found immediate support at 138.5–138.75 during early sell-off, hinting at short-term floor.
• Bollinger Bands widened following the breakout, signaling heightened market activity and trend strength.

The ADAJPY pair opened at 131.92 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 138.51 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 140.93 and a low of 131.92. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume was approximately 2,768,800.5 units, while the notional turnover (amount) summed up to 9,398 units, reflecting strong participation during key price swings.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern indicates a strong bullish bias. The price broke above a key resistance cluster at 138.42 and then extended higher to 140.93, closing the 24-hour period near 138.51. A significant bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 137.01–138.42 level, supporting a continuation of the upward trend. A morning doji at 139.38–140.83 suggests consolidation and potential reversal, but volume and momentum favor continuation above 138.5.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs both show upward momentum, with the price trading above both. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period EMA is around 135.8, the 100-period EMA at 135.05, and the 200-period at 134.5—price is well above all, indicating a strong bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line during the 24-hour period, with a positive histogram showing increasing bullish momentum. The RSI has moved into overbought territory (above 70), suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation. However, the RSI divergence with price has not yet formed, so the trend remains intact for now.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the breakout phase, especially between 137.62 and 140.93, indicating heightened volatility. Price has since closed near the mid-band at 138.51, suggesting moderate consolidation. A retest of the upper band (around 140.93) may trigger renewed bullish pressure if volume confirms.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 10:45 AM ET (1,687,868.5 units), corresponding with a sharp move from 140.17 to 139.87, suggesting heavy selling pressure at the top. This volume divergence may be a warning sign for further downside. Conversely, the volume during the 137.01–138.42 bullish move was steady and confirmed the breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute swing from 131.92 to 140.93 shows 38.2% at 136.33 and 61.8% at 138.91. The price closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible retest or consolidation before a new leg higher. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retrace of the broader uptrend aligns near 138.50, offering a key potential support/resistance level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish setup on the 15-minute timeframe and confirmed break above key resistance levels, a backtest strategy might focus on entering long on a close above 138.42 with a stop-loss placed below 138.00, targeting the next 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels at 139.33 and 140.91 respectively. The MACD crossover and RSI divergence can be used as filters to confirm the signal, while Bollinger Band width can indicate optimal volatility conditions.