Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) on 2025-11-03

• ADAJPY opened at ¥92.32, peaked at ¥94.44, and closed at ¥88.87 amid a bearish trend.
• Price fell sharply below key support at ¥92.00, triggering increased volatility and volume.
• RSI hit oversold territory (under 30), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show a wide range, highlighting recent erratic price behavior.
• High volume diverged with downward price movement, signaling potential bear trap risks.

Opening Summary

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at ¥92.32 on 2025-11-03, reaching a high of ¥94.44 before declining to ¥88.87 at the close. Over the 24-hour period, the pair traded between ¥88.22 and ¥94.44, with a total volume of 1,830,659.3 ADA and a notional turnover of ¥169,287,232. The price has experienced heightened volatility, especially in the latter half of the trading day, with a bearish bias dominating the technical landscape.

Structure & Formations

A strong bearish break below ¥92.00 occurred on 2025-11-03 at 02:30 ET, with the candle closing at ¥91.12. This marked a critical support level breach and confirmed a larger bearish structure. A series of bearish engulfing patterns followed, especially after 03:15 ET, when the price fell sharply to ¥89.93. A potential short-term rebound occurred between 05:00 and 06:00 ET, forming a small bullish reversal pattern near ¥88.36. However, the broader trend remains bearish, and traders should watch for a possible retest of ¥87.50 as the next key support.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term (15-min) moving averages show the 20-period line below the 50-period line, indicating bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 200-period MA, a bearish crossover known as a "death cross." The MACD histogram turned negative after 03:30 ET, and the RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions. However, bearish divergence in volume and price action suggests the sell-off may not be over, and any bounce should be treated cautiously.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 03:15 ET, as the price dropped to ¥89.93, signaling heightened volatility. The price has remained near the lower band for most of the session, reinforcing the bearish pressure. A narrowing of the bands may suggest a potential consolidation phase, but this has not yet materialized. Traders should monitor if the price holds above ¥88.00 or breaks below it to confirm further bearish movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-min swing from ¥94.44 to ¥88.22, the 38.2% retracement level is at ¥90.71, and the 61.8% level is at ¥88.73. The price has tested the 61.8% level multiple times in the last 24 hours, with the most recent close at ¥88.87 suggesting potential support. A failure to hold above this level could see further declines toward ¥87.50, the next Fibonacci extension target.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the prevalence of bearish engulfing and other reversal patterns, a 3-day-hold backtest strategy based on confirmed bearish engulfing signals may offer valuable insights. These patterns often precede significant downward corrections, and validating their predictive power could improve risk-adjusted returns. For a more accurate backtest, a valid ticker symbol recognized by the data provider is required (e.g., ADA-USD or ADA-JPY on a specific exchange). Alternatively, specific dates with confirmed bullish or bearish signals can be used for the analysis. The choice will determine the next steps in strategy development.