Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) on 2025-11-01

• ADAJPY opened at 94.5 and closed at 94.47 after hitting a high of 94.9 and a low of 92.74.
• A sharp sell-off after 17:00 ET pushed price down by ~4.3% before gradual recovery.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• RSI moved into oversold territory temporarily, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Volume increased notably during the downtrend, confirming bearish momentum.

The ADAJPY pair opened at 94.5 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 94.47 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-01. The price touched a high of 94.9 and a low of 92.74 during the 24-hour window, with a total traded volume of 2,732,328.7 and a notional turnover of 260,270,594.7 JPY. A clear bearish bias emerged in the afternoon, with a sharp sell-off followed by partial recovery in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish thrust after 17:00 ET, with a 4.3% drop from 93.78 to 92.84 in a single 15-minute candle. This was followed by a consolidation phase and a modest rebound. A key support level appears to have formed around the 93.4–93.6 range, with price bouncing off this zone multiple times. A potential resistance area is visible near 94.4–94.5, with a cluster of bearish and bullish candlestick patterns forming at this level. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 17:00 ET, confirming the downward shift in momentum.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both turned lower after 17:00 ET, confirming the bearish shift. The price briefly crossed below the 20-period MA during the sell-off, reinforcing the downtrend. The 200-period MA on the daily chart remains flat and neutral, but shorter-term moving averages suggest a continuation of the bearish bias unless a strong reversal occurs above 94.6.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative after 17:00 ET, confirming the bearish move, while the histogram showed a rapid expansion during the sell-off. RSI dropped below 30 during the afternoon, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to trigger a strong rebound. This suggests caution about over-interpreting the oversold signal without accompanying bullish volume confirmation. Momentum appears to be waning as the RSI has since rebounded toward the mid-50s.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the afternoon sell-off, with Bollinger Bands expanding to reflect increased price dispersion. Price traded near the lower band for several candles before a modest bounce. The bands have since narrowed slightly, suggesting a possible return to consolidation. A retest of the 93.4–93.6 support level could provide further insight into whether the downward move is complete or if a more sustained bearish trend is forming.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the key bearish thrust in the early evening, with over 96,000 ADA traded in the 17:00 ET candle. This confirms the bearish move rather than signaling a potential reversal. Turnover also spiked, reaching a peak of approximately 69 million JPY in a single candle. However, volume has since declined, and price has been trading in a tighter range, indicating a potential reduction in conviction among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing from the high of 94.9 to the low of 92.74, the 38.2% retracement level is at ~93.78 and the 61.8% level at ~93.99. Price has tested both levels, with the 38.2% level showing some resistance. A close above 94.1 could indicate a shift in sentiment, but a retest of the 61.8% level may occur before a potential move toward 94.5. Daily Fibonacci levels suggest a key support at ~93.5 and resistance at ~95.1, with price currently consolidating in the middle.

Backtest Hypothesis

While the provided dataset for ADAJPY is sufficient for a 24-hour overview, a backtesting strategy for ADA/USDT (ticker “ADAUSDT”) over the same time period can offer further insight into potential entry and exit signals. A focus on Bullish Engulfing patterns—where a large bullish candle fully engulfs the previous bearish candle—can help identify potential reversal points in a broader timeframe. If applied with a 1-day holding period, the hypothesis would test whether these patterns historically generate profitable trades. Given the similarity in structure between ADA/USDT and ADAJPY, this proxy could serve as a reasonable basis for further analysis. The next step is to confirm how to proceed with this strategy using the available data.