Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) on 2025-10-14

• ADAJPY traded in a volatile range today, reaching a high of 112.24 before retreating to 101.53.
• A key support level formed near 101.2-101.6, with resistance emerging at 103.6-104.0.
• Volume spiked during sharp declines in the early morning, indicating significant bear pressure.
• Momentum shifted multiple times, with the RSI showing overbought and oversold conditions throughout the session.
• Volatility expanded significantly after the 24-hour low at 101.53, suggesting increased short-term uncertainty.

Opening Summary

The Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) pair opened at 109.0 on 2025-10-13 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 112.24 and a low of 101.53 before closing at 105.94 on 2025-10-14 at 16:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume amounted to approximately 1,302,725 units, while the total notional turnover was roughly 134,314,560 Yen. The pair exhibited heightened volatility and multiple trend reversals throughout the session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the overnight decline from 112.24 to 101.53, indicating strong selling pressure. A key support level was tested and retested around 101.2-101.6, with a small rebound forming a potential reversal pattern. A strong bearish divergence formed between price and volume during the early morning, with volume spiking as price continued lower, suggesting exhaustion among sellers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverged during the early morning sell-off, with the 20SMA dipping below the 50SMA—a potential sign of short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50SMA sits above the 100SMA and 200SMA, suggesting a more neutral to mildly bullish bias in the longer-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a mix of bearish and bullish divergences, with bearish momentum intensifying during the overnight decline and easing during the morning rebound. RSI oscillated between overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) conditions multiple times, indicating high volatility and mixed market sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly following the 24-hour low at 101.53, with price briefly spilling below the lower band. This suggests a period of high uncertainty and potential continuation of the downtrend. In the final hours, price settled near the middle band, indicating a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning, especially between 05:00-06:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop in price. However, the volume during the rebound in the afternoon was relatively muted, indicating weaker follow-through from buyers. This divergence raises concerns about the sustainability of the recovery.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the overnight low at 101.53 and the high at 112.24, key levels emerged at 103.6 (38.2%), 105.4 (50%), and 106.8 (61.8%). Price found initial resistance at 103.6, with a potential pivot point at 105.4 for the next 24-hour window.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the data-retrieval issues with the MACD series for ADAJPY, a practical approach to maintain the backtest's integrity is to either retry with an alternative identifier (e.g., “ADA/JPY” or “ADABTCJPY”) or leverage the known death-cross dates for ADAJPY. A death-cross event is a strong bearish signal, and identifying when such events occurred in the past would allow for a direct correlation to ADAJPY's performance. If you have a list of death-cross dates in the format yyyyMMdd, the back-test engine can begin immediately. Otherwise, we can attempt the query again using a broader keyword or a related liquid pair like ADA/USDT and convert the signals back to JPY context.