Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) — 2025-10-06

• ADAJPY surged ~7.0% over 24 hours, closing near an intraday high.
• Strong bullish momentum seen in final 6 hours, with volume spiking 2x above average.
• Key resistance at 128.0 tested multiple times; support appears solid at 124.0–125.0.
• RSI shows overbought conditions, while MACD confirms bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening from 126.0 to 132.0 range.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 125.97 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and closed at 131.07 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET, reaching a 24-hour high of 132.05 and a low of 124.46. Total volume traded over the 24-hour window was 1,043,726.0, and notional turnover totaled approximately ¥132,548,890.3 (calculated as sum of amount * price across all candles).

The price formation over the past 24 hours showed a strong bullish reversal pattern, with a notable bullish engulfing candle appearing on 2025-10-05 at 19:15 ET and a strong hammer near the 124.5 level. Key support levels identified include 125.0–125.5 (confirmed in late evening trading) and 124.0–124.5 (tested but held). Resistance levels at 126.0–127.0 and 128.0–129.0 were both tested and breached in a late-morning push, with price closing above 131.07, indicating a possible continuation of upward momentum.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bullish, with price staying above both for most of the session. The 50-period MA crossed above the 20-period MA, confirming a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100- and 200-period lines, indicating an intermediate-term bullish bias. MACD turned sharply positive after 19:00 ET, with a strong bullish crossover in late evening, reinforcing the buying pressure. RSI climbed into overbought territory (~70–75) in the final hour of the session, but price continued to rise, suggesting strong conviction. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, with price spending the last 6 hours in the upper band, signaling high volatility and potential continuation.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the key swing low of 124.46 to the swing high of 132.05 indicate key potential retracement levels at 128.56 (38.2%) and 126.51 (61.8%). Price has already tested and bounced from 128.0–128.5, suggesting a possible pullback toward the 126.5–128.0 range could follow. Volume and turnover data showed a clear divergence during the 19:15–20:00 ET session: while price made a strong push to 123.0, turnover did not confirm it, hinting at potential profit-taking or distribution. However, a large volume candle with a high open-to-close ratio at 15:30 ET pushed the pair above 130.18, signaling strong institutional buying.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout above the 128.0–128.5 resistance level, confirmed by both a bullish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover. Using a 15-minute chart, a buy entry could be triggered at the open of the candle confirming the breakout, with a stop loss placed below the nearest support level at 126.0–126.5. A take-profit target can be set at the 131.07–132.05 Fibonacci extension level. This approach leverages both price action and momentum indicators for confirmation and risk management, making it suitable for a short-term trend-following strategy. Given the recent strong volume and RSI divergence, this approach may offer high probability during volatile sessions.