Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) on 2025-09-21

• ADAJPY opened at 133.52 and traded within a volatile range between 130.54 and 133.83 before closing at 131.38.
• Momentum shifted multiple times, with RSI indicating overbought conditions early and oversold conditions late.
• Volume spiked significantly during the session, especially around 09:30 ET, with high notional turnover.
• Bollinger Bands showed a notable expansion in early trading and price remained within the outer band for much of the session.
• Key Fibonacci retracement levels at 132.44 (38.2%) and 131.13 (61.8%) were tested multiple times.

The ADAJPY pair opened at 133.52 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 131.38 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The price reached a high of 133.83 and a low of 130.54 over the 24-hour period. The total traded volume amounted to 773,480.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 102,990,000 yen (based on average price and volume).

The candlestick structure showed a complex mix of bearish and bullish impulses, with a dominant bearish trend emerging after 09:30 ET. Key support levels were observed around 131.13, 131.56, and 131.80, with resistance at 132.44, 132.86, and 133.10. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was seen during the 09:30 ET candle as price dropped from 132.01 to 131.08. Doji appeared around 11:00 ET and 15:45 ET, signaling indecision and potential reversal points.

20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart displayed a bearish crossover mid-session, reinforcing the downtrend. The RSI reached overbought territory early (above 70) and then dropped sharply into oversold territory late (below 30), indicating strong bearish momentum and potential for a short-term rebound. MACD showed a bearish divergence late in the session, suggesting continued downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the first half of the session, reflecting increased volatility. Price remained within the outer band for much of the day, indicating strong directional movement. As volatility decreased later in the session, the bands contracted slightly, hinting at potential consolidation or a possible breakout.

Volume and notional turnover spiked notably around 09:30 ET, coinciding with the price drop from 132.01 to 131.08. The high volume on that candle confirmed the strength of the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume was observed in the final hours of the session, where price continued to fall but volume did not increase proportionally, suggesting possible exhaustion of the downward move.

Key Fibonacci levels played a role in defining price behavior. The 38.2% retracement level at 132.44 acted as a strong resistance, while the 61.8% level at 131.13 served as a key support. Price bounced off these levels multiple times, indicating the importance of these psychological barriers.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy for ADAJPY involves entering a short position when the 20-period moving average crosses below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirming bearish momentum. A stop-loss is placed at the nearest Fibonacci resistance (e.g., 132.44), and a take-profit is set near 131.13, the key 61.8% retracement level. Volume confirmation is used to filter false signals: only entries with above-average volume are considered valid. This approach may work best in high-volatility environments like the ones observed on 2025-09-21.