Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) – 2025-09-14

• ADAJPY opened at 138.56, reached 139.31, and closed near 130.96 after a 24-hour decline.
• Momentum weakened with RSI hitting bearish levels and MACD showing bearish crossover.
• Volatility increased as price dropped through key Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Bands.
• Low volume divergence during the decline suggests weak conviction in the bearish trend.
• A strong short-term support is forming near 130.0, with potential for a bounce or consolidation.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 138.56 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET, reached a high of 139.31, and closed at 130.96 by 2025-09-14 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period is 1,193,326.3, and notional turnover is approximately 165,590,597.76 JPY. The pair has shown a strong bearish bias with clear breakdown and bearish momentum in the last 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below a key 15-minute level of 136.0 and extended the decline through a strong Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 134.6. The breakdown appears confirmed as the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both bearish. A notable bearish engulfing pattern is visible around 137.6–137.3, signaling a shift in sentiment. The daily chart shows the price below all key moving averages, with 50-day and 200-day MAs reinforcing the bearish trend.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both bearish and have been trending lower throughout the session. The price is well below the 20-period MA, which has acted as a bearish guide. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are aligned bearishly, reinforcing a medium-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart has shown bearish crossover and is trending lower, with a bearish histogram reinforcing the sell-off. RSI has entered oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential for a bounce, though bearish momentum remains strong. A sharp drop in RSI over the last hour suggests a continuation of the downward move unless buyers step in.

Bollinger Bands

Price is now trading near the lower Bollinger Band, which confirms an overextended bearish move. The bands are expanding, indicating increased volatility. A bounce off the lower band may occur, but it is more likely that the price will continue to trend downward, especially with the MACD and RSI still in bearish territory.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown phase but has since moderated. A divergence between price and volume is emerging in the last 6 hours, as volume has decreased despite the continued decline. This could suggest exhaustion in the bearish move and a potential near-term correction. Notional turnover has also declined, indicating weaker conviction in the current move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the daily chart have been broken, with the 61.8% retracement at 134.6 now a critical support. On the 15-minute chart, the 50% retracement at 136.34 has failed as support, confirming the bearish trend. A potential bounce could target the 38.2% retracement at 131.75 before retesting 130.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy focusing on bearish continuation patterns, such as engulfing and breakdowns below key moving averages, appears to align with the observed price action. Entry would be triggered on a close below a strong 15-minute support level or after a bearish engulfing pattern forms. Stop-loss would be placed just above the nearest Fibonacci resistance, while take-profit would target the next key support or the 61.8% retracement on the daily chart. This strategy could be refined by incorporating RSI and MACD signals to confirm the strength of the bearish move.