Market Overview for Cardano/Tether (ADAUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• Price surged from 0.8019 to 0.8242, followed by a sharp pullback to 0.7832, reflecting strong volatility.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to bearish with RSI entering oversold territory near 0.7768.
• Volume spiked during the pullback, confirming bearish sentiment and divergence in price/turnover.
• A key resistance at 0.8185–0.8215 and support at 0.7916–0.7819 defined the 24-hour range.
• A deep retracement to 0.7832 (61.8% of 0.7768–0.8242) highlights potential for a short-term bounce.

The ADAUSDT pair opened at 0.8019 on 2025-10-09 at 16:00 ET and surged to an intraday high of 0.8242 before correcting sharply to a 24-hour low of 0.7832 at 15:45 ET on 2025-10-10. The pair closed at 0.7832 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume reached 87,957,927.7 units, with notional turnover hitting $69.7 million, reflecting heightened volatility and shifting sentiment.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick structure showed a bearish reversal pattern following an extended bullish phase. A large bearish candle on October 10 at 15:00 ET marked a 61.8% retracement of the prior 4-hour bullish move. Key support levels emerged around 0.7916 and 0.7819, while resistance levels were defined by the 0.8185–0.8215 cluster. A doji near 0.7832 suggested indecision and potential for a bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period EMAs crossed to the downside around 0.8165, signaling a shift in momentum. Daily moving averages (50, 100, 200) remained in bullish alignment, but the bearish crossover on the 15-minute chart may indicate a short-term correction before resuming the longer-term trend. The price may test the 50-day EMA at 0.808 as a key psychological level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative at 15:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped below 30 at 0.7832, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a countertrend bounce. While the RSI may rebound from 0.7768, a sustained move above 0.8165 would require a significant volume increase for confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the pullback, with the price breaking below the lower band at 0.7832. The Bollinger Band squeeze was evident before 0.8242, suggesting a breakout was likely. Now that the price is near the lower band, it may find support and move back toward the middle band, but a break below 0.7819 would signal further bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the pullback, particularly around 0.7832, confirming bearish sentiment. However, a divergence between price and turnover was noted during the final hours, as turnover increased while price remained stagnant. This may indicate a short-term bottoming process, but confirmation is needed before taking a bullish stance.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level at 0.7832 acted as a strong support, with the price testing this level twice. The 38.2% retracement at 0.8095 may offer resistance if the price bounces, but the deeper 61.8% level suggests a more bearish outlook for the next 24–48 hours. A move above 0.8165 would negate the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish reversal and oversold conditions, a backtesting strategy could be designed to test the potential of a short-term bounce using a combination of RSI, Bollinger Bands, and volume confirmation. A long entry could be triggered on a close above the 0.7832 support level, with a stop loss placed below 0.7819. The target would aim for the 0.8095 Fibonacci retracement level. This setup would test whether sentiment has stabilized after the sharp correction and whether volume can confirm the breakout. The strategy could be tested over the last month to evaluate its robustness and risk-reward profile.