Market Overview: Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) – 2025-09-23

• Price dropped to a 24-hour low of 0.6232 before rebounding above 0.64, with a closing near 0.6406.
• High volatility seen in early morning hours, with volume peaking at over 50k USDC.
• RSI and MACD suggest moderate bearish momentum but no oversold conditions observed.
• Key support at 0.635–0.639 and resistance near 0.65–0.652 remain relevant.
• Bollinger Bands widened during early trading, indicating potential trend continuation.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23, Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) opened at 0.6812, hit a high of 0.6847, fell to a low of 0.6232, and closed at 0.6406. The 24-hour trading volume reached 2,167,892.5 USDC, with a total notional turnover of $1,481,760.17. The pair displayed a broad range, driven by a strong initial sell-off and a late consolidation into the mid-0.64 range.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish breakdown from the prior 24-hour high of 0.6847, with a sharp sell-off early in the 24-hour window. Key support levels emerged at 0.635, 0.639, and 0.645, all of which were tested multiple times. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 12:00 and 12:45 ET as the price dropped from 0.6847 to 0.6673. A double bottom formed at 0.6232–0.625 during the 01:00–01:15 ET window. A key consolidation phase took place during the final 4 hours of the period, as the price closed near 0.6406. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6347 and a 38.2% retracement at 0.6435 appear relevant for near-term direction.

Moving Averages

Short-term 15-minute moving averages (20-period and 50-period) remained in a bearish alignment for most of the 24-hour period, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 20-period MA in the 01:30–02:00 ET window. The 200-period daily MA (not computed here) is likely positioned above the 0.64–0.65 range, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. A key 50-period MA level at 0.643–0.646 could now act as a dynamic resistance if the price attempts to retest the upper end of the 24-hour range.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence as the price rebounded from 0.6232 in the 02:45–04:00 ET window, with a weak positive divergence but no clear bullish signal. RSI dropped into the 25–30 range during the 01:00–02:00 ET window but did not confirm an oversold condition due to the extended time spent in that range. The RSI closed near 38, suggesting moderate bearish momentum with potential for a short-term bounce from the 0.639–0.642 range.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the first 4 hours of the 24-hour period, indicating high volatility. By 05:00–06:00 ET, the bands had contracted slightly, signaling a period of consolidation. Price remained within the band range throughout, with the 0.6391–0.6461 mid-band range serving as a key area of interest. A sustained close above 0.6461 may trigger a re-test of the 0.65 level.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 01:15 ET, with 50,469.3 USDC traded and a high of 0.6432. This was followed by a significant volume increase at 05:00–06:00 ET, during the price rebound from 0.6318 to 0.6427. A divergence was noted during the 02:45–04:00 ET window where volume declined but price moved upward, suggesting a weakening of bullish conviction. Total notional turnover peaked at $10,198.96 during the 01:15 ET candle, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major 24-hour swing (0.6847–0.6232), the 38.2% retracement level at 0.6435 and the 61.8% level at 0.6347 are critical. The price closed near 0.6406, suggesting it is approaching the 0.6347 level, which could trigger further bearish movement. If the price breaks below the 0.6347 level, a test of the 0.6232 low could follow, with the 50% retracement at 0.6540 potentially acting as a pivot for a counter-move.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a long/short system based on a 20/50-period moving average crossover on the 15-minute chart. A long position is triggered when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, and a short position when it crosses below. Stop-loss and take-profit levels are set based on the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels. This strategy could have captured the bearish momentum during the 01:00–02:00 ET period, but may have missed the late consolidation phase due to the cross reverting back into a neutral range. A trailing stop could have improved performance by locking in gains during the 06:00–08:00 ET rebound.