Market Overview for Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT)

Summary
• Price dipped below $0.0375 on heavy volume amid bearish engulfing patterns.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum with potential oversold conditions at 0.0366–0.0368.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight drop, pushing price to the lower Bollinger Band.
• Key Fibonacci 61.8% support at ~$0.0369 may offer near-term relief or trigger further selling.
• Volume surged during the downward move, confirming bearish bias but suggesting potential exhaustion near 0.0366.

The pair opened at $0.0382 on January 4, 2026, and reached a high of $0.0387 before closing at $0.0368 on January 5, 2026, at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled ~16.4 million units, with a notional turnover of ~$605,000.

Structure and Price Action

Price action on the 5-minute chart showed a bearish reversal in the overnight session, with a key bearish engulfing pattern forming around 04:30–05:00 ET as the price dropped from $0.0372 to $0.0368. A long lower shadow in the same timeframe indicated rejection near $0.0366, reinforcing its role as a potential near-term support. A doji formed at 05:45 ET, signaling indecision and the possibility of a short-term pause.

Momentum and Indicators

The RSI crossed into oversold territory below 30, aligning with the MACD bearish crossover, suggesting continued downward momentum. However, the RSI’s failure to drop below 25 may hint at limited bearish conviction. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 5-minute chart were aligned downward, supporting the bearish bias.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the overnight hours as the price moved toward the lower Bollinger Band. The 20-period Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting heightened uncertainty in the market. Price remained near the lower band for much of the session, indicating bearish dominance and potential for a rebound from 0.0366–0.0368.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the downward move, particularly between 04:30–06:00 ET, confirming bearish control. However, a notable divergence appeared around 05:30–06:00 ET, where volume began to wane despite continued price decline, suggesting possible exhaustion. The final hour before 12:00 ET showed a modest increase in volume as price stabilized near $0.0368.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 5-minute chart pointed to potential turning points at 38.2% (~$0.0373), 61.8% (~$0.0369), and 78.6% (~$0.0365). The price found brief support at the 61.8% level but broke through it after the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern. If the price consolidates near $0.0368–0.0366, the 61.8% and 78.6% levels could serve as key watchpoints for a possible rebound or further decline.

Market participants may see a short-term test of the $0.0366–0.0368 range in the next 24 hours, with the potential for a bounce or renewed bearish momentum. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains high and divergence in volume suggests uncertainty in price direction.