Market Overview for BNB/Yen (BNBJPY) on 2025-10-03

• BNB/Yen rallied 7.2% in 24 hours, closing at ¥163,369 after a sharp break above ¥156,000.
• High volatility seen with intraday swings over ¥10,000 and expanding Bollinger Bands.
• Strong volume clustering observed during ¥160,000–¥164,500 range.
• RSI surged into overbought territory near 75, suggesting potential near-term pullback.

BNB/Yen (BNBJPY) opened at ¥154,876 at 12:00 ET on October 2, reaching a high of ¥164,685 and a low of ¥154,876 before closing at ¥163,369 at 12:00 ET on October 3. The 24-hour volume totaled 530.1998 BNB, with a notional turnover of ¥84,529,898. The pair exhibited strong upside momentum, particularly in the 21:00–04:00 ET period.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a textbook bullish breakout above ¥156,000, forming a high probability reversal structure after a consolidation phase. Multiple bullish engulfing patterns and a strong hammer formation at ¥154,876 confirmed buyer strength. A key support level is now at ¥156,000, with potential resistance forming near ¥164,685, the 24-hour high.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both the 20 and 50 SMA, reinforcing short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA sits near ¥159,000, offering a potential retest zone. The 100 and 200-day SMAs are at ¥157,800 and ¥156,400, respectively, supporting the view that the recent move is a strong reversal rather than a temporary rally.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line with positive divergence, confirming bullish momentum. RSI surged to 75 at the 24-hour high, signaling overbought conditions and increasing the likelihood of a near-term pullback or consolidation phase. Traders should watch for a retest of ¥160,000 as a potential pivot level.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the late-ET rally, reaching a width of ¥9,000 at the 24-hour high. Price traded at the upper band for extended periods, indicating strong buying pressure. A contraction phase may follow, offering potential entry points for continuation traders if the breakout holds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the ¥160,000–¥164,500 rally, with the highest volume occurring at ¥163,000–¥164,000. Turnover during this phase totaled ¥29.6 million, confirming the move's legitimacy. Divergence is not evident; volume and price action aligned closely, reinforcing the bullish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the ¥154,876–¥164,685 swing, key levels are 38.2% at ¥160,100 and 61.8% at ¥159,030. Price appears to be targeting the 61.8% retracement as a potential pullback level, offering a short-term risk-reward opportunity.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for BNB/Yen could involve entering long positions on a bullish breakout above the 50 SMA, confirmed by a closing candle above the upper Bollinger Band and a bullish engulfing pattern. Exit triggers could include a close below the 20 SMA or RSI entering overbought territory (above 75), with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low at ¥156,000. This approach aligns with the 24-hour reversal pattern and could be tested on 15-minute OHLC data from the past 30 days.