Market Overview for BNB/Yen on 2025-10-05

• BNB/Yen rallied sharply overnight, surging above ¥172,000, but faced profit-taking pressure in the last 8 hours.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern around ¥169,300, followed by a key breakout above ¥172,000 and a pullback to ¥170,000.
• RSI and MACD confirmed strong momentum during the upward push but showed early signs of divergence in the last 4 hours.
• Volatility expanded dramatically during the ¥169,000–¥172,500 move, with volume spiking to 155,000+ JPY notional in key 15-minute intervals.
• Bollinger Bands showed a narrow consolidation phase before the break, and price is currently in the upper 70–80% of the bands.

24-Hour Price Summary

BNB/Yen opened at ¥168,853 at 12:00 ET−1 and surged to a peak of ¥174,369 before closing at ¥172,282 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. The 24-hour period saw a low of ¥167,930 and a high of ¥174,369. Total volume reached 1,327.36 BNB, with total notional turnover amounting to ¥225,323,606.

Structure & Formations

The daily candlestick structure suggests a strong bullish reversal, marked by a key engulfing pattern near ¥169,300 followed by a breakout above ¥172,000. A notable 15-minute doji formed near ¥173,775, suggesting a momentary pause in the upward thrust. Key resistance levels appear to be forming near ¥172,000 and ¥174,500, while critical support is observed at ¥170,000 and ¥168,000.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a strong bullish bias, with price consistently above both lines. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average currently sits at ¥169,500, and the price is well above this level, indicating a continuation of the upward trend. The 200-day average is significantly lower, reinforcing the strength of the current trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained above the signal line for much of the 24-hour period, confirming strong upward momentum. The histogram showed divergence in the last 4 hours, hinting at a possible slowdown in upward momentum. The RSI climbed above 65 in the morning, indicating overbought conditions, and subsequently pulled back to around 58–62, suggesting potential for further consolidation before a new upward move.

Bollinger Bands

Price behavior showed a clear expansion in volatility during the ¥169,000–¥172,000 move, with bands widening significantly. Price is currently sitting in the upper 70–80% of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting the potential for a pullback or consolidation phase. A closing above the upper band could indicate a continuation of the rally, but a reversal below the 20-period SMA may trigger a short-term correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the ¥169,000–¥172,000 rally, with the most active 15-minute periods showing over ¥155,000 notional turnover. The volume-to-price action was largely aligned during the initial ascent but diverged slightly in the final 4 hours, with rising volume failing to support higher prices. This could indicate early signs of exhaustion among bullish participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the ¥167,930–¥174,369 swing, key levels include ¥172,150 (38.2%), ¥170,300 (50%), and ¥168,450 (61.8%). Price tested the 38.2% level twice, forming a possible consolidation zone. A break below ¥170,000 would suggest a test of the 50% level, while a retest of ¥172,150 could confirm the continuation of the bullish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent structure, a viable backtesting strategy could involve a long bias when price closes above ¥170,000, with a stop-loss placed below ¥168,000. Targets could be set using Fibonacci levels at ¥172,150 and ¥174,500, using RSI and MACD divergence as sell signals. This setup would align with the observed breakout pattern and the volume confirmation during the initial surge. A trailing stop at the 20-period SMA could help lock in gains during the next upward move.