Market Overview for Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) - November 3, 2025

• Price opened at $0.04924 and closed at $0.04491 within 24 hours.
• A sharp decline was seen overnight, with lows dipping to $0.04272 and $0.04103 during the early afternoon.
• Volatility surged in the second half of the day, with large-volume declines pushing the price below key psychological levels.
• Volume spiked during the sell-off, with over 7 million contracts traded between 15:45 ET and 16:15 ET.
• Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD would likely signal oversold conditions by the close, though without confirmation of a reversal.

At 12:00 ET–1, BLURUSDT opened at $0.04924 and advanced briefly, reaching a high of $0.05001 before reversing course. By 12:00 ET the same day, the pair closed at $0.04491, after falling as low as $0.04103. Total volume over the 24-hour period exceeded 7.5 million contracts, with turnover reaching $357,500, reflecting heightened activity during the sharp midday and afternoon decline.

The daily structure showed a clear bearish bias, marked by a long lower shadow and a narrow close near the session low. This bearish exhaustion pattern suggests increased bear pressure, especially after the formation of multiple bearish engulfing patterns between 15:00 and 16:30 ET. A notable support level appears forming near $0.0440–0.0445, where price briefly consolidated before another small rebound toward $0.0449. A critical resistance level is located around $0.0495–0.0496, where the price previously peaked.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart would likely show a bearish crossover, with the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, a significant drop below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs would have occurred during the sharp decline. This breakdown below key moving averages may signal further bearish continuation in the near term, especially if price remains below $0.0490 in the coming days.

The RSI would have entered oversold territory by the close, with values likely in the low 20s, indicating potential for a near-term bounce or consolidation. The MACD line would have crossed below the signal line at the height of the sell-off, confirming a bearish divergence. Bollinger Bands expanded during the afternoon selloff, with price testing the lower band during the $0.04103 low. This may suggest a temporary oversold condition, though without a clear reversal candle or bullish pattern, the bias remains bearish.

Volume spiked during the sharp selloff, particularly in the 15:45–16:30 ET window, where over 7 million contracts traded. This volume divergence with price suggests aggressive liquidation, likely driven by stop-loss orders or panic selling. Turnover also surged during these hours, with over $175,000 traded between 15:45 and 16:15 ET. This divergence in volume and price suggests that the market is not yet bottoming and may continue to probe lower unless a strong bullish reversal forms.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of $0.05001 to the low of $0.04103 would place key support at $0.0448 (61.8%) and $0.0475 (38.2%). Price may find initial support at $0.0448–0.0445 in the next 24 hours. A break below this could test the next level at $0.0435 or $0.0425, especially if the selloff continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD death-cross strategy involves entering short positions when the MACD line crosses below the signal line and holding the trade for seven days. Given the strong bearish momentum observed over the last 24 hours—confirmed by the MACD crossover and RSI oversold levels—this strategy may offer opportunities for short-term bearish positioning if the trend continues. However, given the oversold conditions, a pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.0475 or a bullish reversal pattern could invalidate the strategy. Traders using this approach would benefit from incorporating volatility indicators like Bollinger Bands to filter false signals during contraction phases and ensuring volume remains supportive of the trend.