Market Overview for Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) – 2025-11-13

Summary
• Price action shows a bullish reversal forming near $0.0443 with a key breakout above.
• Momentum remains constructive with RSI approaching overbought territory.
• Volume surged at higher price levels, confirming strength in the bullish move.

Opening at $0.04491, Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) touched a high of $0.04598 and a low of $0.04370 before closing at $0.04580. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 8,246,903.8 tokens, with a notional turnover of approximately $374,260. Price action reveals a clear shift in sentiment as a series of bullish engulfing and inside candles confirmed a reversal at key support levels around $0.0443.

On the 15-minute chart, the price found support at the 20SMA and 50SMA, which appear to be converging into a short-term ascending bias. A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the $0.0443 level, suggesting a potential continuation higher. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the earlier swing low appears to be a strong psychological level of support now turned into support. The RSI is approaching overbought territory, suggesting short-term momentum may slow unless volume remains robust.

Bollinger Bands have shown a moderate expansion, with price hovering near the upper band, indicating rising volatility. A breakout above $0.046 may confirm a new short-term high and could attract further buying interest. Divergences between volume and price are not evident yet, which is a positive sign for the bullish trend. MACD remains in positive territory with a narrowing histogram, suggesting that while momentum remains, it is losing some steam.

The price has not yet tested the daily 200SMA, which remains a key resistance level for longer-term investors. However, the recent 15-minute pattern suggests the pair could test higher levels if the bullish narrative continues. The formation of a bullish channel suggests traders may look to key resistance levels around $0.0460 as the next target.

Looking ahead, traders may want to monitor the 61.8% Fibonacci level for signs of a pullback or continuation. A close above $0.046 could signal a broader breakout, though it is important to remain cautious as overbought RSI conditions may bring in profit-taking.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest of a strategy that longs BLURUSDT on every bullish engulfing candlestick and exits on the first bearish engulfing candlestick reveals compelling performance. Over the period from January 1, 2022, to November 13, 2025, the strategy delivered a total return of 66.05%, annualized at 21.94%. While the Sharpe ratio of 0.75 and max drawdown of 25.42% suggest a moderate level of risk, the average trade returned +7.41% with losses averaging -6%. This aligns with the recent formation of bullish engulfing patterns and suggests that such a strategy could continue to perform well if similar setups recur.