Market Overview: Blur/Tether (BLURUSDT) – 2025-09-21

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• BLUR/USDT fell 0.83% over 24 hours, with price action consolidating between key support and resistance levels on the 15-minute chart.
• Momentum turned bearish in late-night trading, with a bearish divergence on RSI and a 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern observed.
• Volatility increased during the session, with volume surging as price dropped below the 20-period moving average.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened uncertainty and potential for a breakout or continuation of the current trend.
• Key support at 0.0845–0.0847 appears relevant for near-term direction, with a bearish breakdown in sight if this level is tested.

The 24-hour session for BLUR/USDT saw the pair open at 0.08707 (12:00 ET - 1) and close at 0.08476 (12:00 ET), with a high of 0.08768 and low of 0.08374. Total traded volume was 18.06 million BLUR, while notional turnover reached $1,536,772. Price action showed a gradual bearish shift as volume increased and momentum indicators flattened, suggesting accumulation or exhaustion in short-term trading patterns.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 15-minute timeframe formed a bearish engulfing pattern after a brief rally from 0.0851 to 0.08555, signaling possible rejection of higher levels. A significant support zone formed between 0.0847–0.0850, with multiple bounces and consolidation occurring around 0.0848. The 0.0863 level acted as a short-term resistance, with failed attempts to breach it reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price fell below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages during the late-night hours, reinforcing the bearish bias. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at approximately 0.0855, with price currently below it, while the 200-period MA is at 0.0862, indicating a longer-term bearish trend. The 100-period MA further supports this with a downward slope.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line, with the histogram showing bearish divergence as prices declined. RSI reached an oversold condition in the 20s but failed to rebound meaningfully, suggesting bearish exhaustion is not yet confirmed. A potential bounce may occur if RSI rises above 40, but for now, momentum remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the session as volatility increased, with price frequently touching the lower band, suggesting a bearish bias. A period of contraction was observed around 0.0854–0.0856 but was quickly followed by a breakdown, indicating a high probability of continued bearish movement. Price is now well within the lower half of the bands.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the late-night to early morning hours, especially from 02:30 to 05:00 ET, as the price broke down below key support levels. Turnover also increased in tandem with the price decline, suggesting strong bearish conviction. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, indicating that the downward move is being supported by consistent selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.08768–0.08374 swing, key retracement levels at 0.0862 (61.8%), 0.0858 (50%), and 0.0854 (38.2%) are relevant. The current price near 0.08476 is below all these levels, indicating a potential for continuation. A break below 0.0845 would target 0.08374, the initial support level for the full swing.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see increased bearish pressure if the support at 0.0847–0.0845 is broken, with a likely target at 0.08374. A short-term bounce could occur around the 0.0850–0.0852 range, but confirmation of a reversal is unlikely without strong volume and RSI support. Investors should closely monitor price reactions at these key levels, with an eye on potential divergences in momentum indicators.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the price closes below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed at the recent swing high (0.0862) and a take-profit at 0.08374. This approach aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and the breakdown of key support levels observed in the last 24 hours. The strategy would aim to capture a continuation of the bearish trend while managing risk through defined stop and limit levels. Given current conditions, a trade entry could be considered if volume increases with price action remains bearish and RSI remains below 40.