Market Overview for Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC)

Summary
• TAOBTC experienced a bearish reversal with a close near the 15-minute low of $0.003527.
• Momentum remains weak as RSI nears oversold territory while MACD shows negative divergence.
• Volatility spiked during the overnight session, with Bollinger Bands widening and volume surging.
• A 15-minute Bearish Engulfing pattern formed near $0.00365, but failed to hold.
• Price remains below key Fibonacci levels, indicating a potential continuation of the bear trend.

Opening Observations

Bittensor/Bitcoin (TAOBTC) opened at $0.003599 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.003527 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range reached a high of $0.003685 and a low of $0.00349. Total volume was 1,082.61 BTC equivalent, with a notional turnover of $389,271.82. The pair appears to be consolidating after a sharp sell-off in the early hours of the morning.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour timeframe displayed a bearish bias with multiple small-bodied bearish candles and a significant decline from the overnight high. A key resistance level formed at $0.00365, where a 15-minute Bearish Engulfing pattern appeared. This was followed by a breakdown, failing to retest the resistance. A support level appears near $0.003519, where the price found a temporary floor, but failed to rally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the recent swing.

Indicators: MACD and RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative, with the signal line crossing above the histogram, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. The RSI is approaching oversold territory at 30, indicating a possible short-term bounce could occur. However, the divergence between price and RSI suggests a deeper bearish trend may continue if volume remains low during any rebound.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight sell-off, indicating heightened volatility. Price has spent most of the session trading near the lower band, with occasional bounces into the middle band. A contraction is expected in the near term unless a strong reversal occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning sell-off, with over $103,514 in turnover during the 15-minute candle that formed a high of $0.003685. This suggests increased participation during the bearish move. However, volume has since decreased, signaling reduced conviction in any short-term rebounds.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the recent $0.00349 to $0.003685 swing sits at $0.003555, where the price briefly found resistance but failed to break through. A retest of the 0.382 level ($0.00359) is expected in the next 24 hours, which could either confirm a bearish continuation or serve as a potential entry for shorts.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting of a strategy that sells TAOBTC upon the formation of a Bearish Engulfing pattern at the resistance level of $0.00365 has proven ineffective from 2022 to the present. The pattern formed at this level was followed by a sharp sell-off rather than a reversal. Given the current price of $0.003527, which is significantly below the resistance level, this strategy would have triggered a sell signal at an inopportune time. The failure of the price to retest or exceed the resistance level suggests that the strategy is not suitable for TAOBTC in its current market structure. Traders should consider integrating additional indicators or context before relying solely on candlestick patterns for high-probability entries.

Forward Outlook and Risk

TAOBTC may test $0.003555 in the next 24 hours, where a failed break could signal further bearish momentum. Traders should watch for volume confirmation or divergence in the RSI to assess the strength of any potential bounce. However, the risk of a continuation below $0.003519 remains elevated. Investors are advised to exercise caution and avoid overexposure amid ongoing volatility.